
Abdou Harroui
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Abdou Harroui's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.04x the positional average in the league (906 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 45
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 47.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €999k vs market €1.6M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -40% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 906 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1269
- Opponent strength
- 1507
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €604k – €1.5M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-97 Elo); relative output down 52% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -42% to -14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 906 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CM | 23 | 906 | 26% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.23 | 1507 | 1269 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CM | 10 | 462 | 14% | 1 | 2 | 0.58 | 0.46 | 1528 | 1366 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Frosinone Calcio | Serie A | CM | 18 | 1026 | 30% | 3 | 3 | 0.53 | 0.65 | 1528 | 1308 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | CM | 23 | 634 | 19% | 2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.25 | 1452 | 1420 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | CM | 22 | 434 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1440 | 1464 | 0.89 |
| 2021/22 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1411 | 1295 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 32 | 2781 | 91% | 6 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 1358 | 1320 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RM | 26 | 2147 | 92% | 4 | 9 | 0.54 | 0.48 | 1379 | 1265 | 0.62 |
| 2017/18 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1440 | 1183 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 55 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Frosinone Calcio | 3 | 159 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 2 | 164 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 105 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Benassi Serie A · 2023 | 29 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Saîf-Eddine Khaoui Ligue 1 · 2022 | 27 | €1.5M | €2.0M | rose |
| Dor Peretz Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €1.4M | €1.5M | flat |
| Eduardo Henrique Serie A · 2021 | 26 | €1.7M | €1.0M | fell |
| Valerio Verre Serie A · 2023 | 29 | €1.8M | €1.4M | fell |
| Abdelhamid Sabiri Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €2.5M | €1.7M | fell |
| Bongani Zungu Ligue 1 · 2020 | 28 | €1.6M | €900k | fell |
| Ismael Diomande Ligue 1 · 2019 | 27 | €1.3M | €550k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2024 | Frosinone | Hellas Verona | €2.4M | €2.7M |
| 13 Jul 2023 | Sassuolo | Frosinone | €700k | €2.7M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Sparta R. | Sassuolo | €1.0M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Sassuolo | Sparta R. | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Sparta R. | Sassuolo | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sparta U21 | Sparta R. | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sparta U19 | Sparta U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Sparta R. U17 | Sparta U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Alphense B. U17 | Sparta R. U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Alphense B. Jgd | Alphense B. U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | UVS Leiden Yout | Alphense B. Jgd | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.