Abdou Harroui

28 yrs · Central midfielder (also DM, RM) · Morocco
Hellas Verona · Serie A · Foot: both · Height: 182 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€1.6M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€565k – €1.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.0M – €2.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€604k – €1.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€581k – €2.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€565k – €1.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.0M – €2.8M
Projected value (24 months)€604k – €1.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.6M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Abdou Harroui's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.04x the positional average in the league (906 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 45

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage47.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.5 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €999k vs market €1.6M
Expected appreciationVery low-40% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
906 (27% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.10
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.23
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
47 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1269
Opponent strength
1507
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€604k – €1.5M

Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-97 Elo); relative output down 52% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -42% to -14%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 906 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Hellas VeronaSerie ACM2390626%100.100.23150712690.93
2024/25Hellas VeronaSerie ACM1046214%120.580.46152813660.99
2023/24Frosinone CalcioSerie ACM18102630%330.530.65152813080.98
2022/23US SassuoloSerie ACM2363419%200.280.25145214200.94
2021/22US SassuoloSerie ACM2243413%000.000.12144014640.89
2021/22Sparta RotterdamEredivisieDM1903%000.000.11141112950.60
2020/21Sparta RotterdamEredivisieDM32278191%630.290.22135813200.56
2019/20Sparta RotterdamEredivisieRM26214792%490.540.48137912650.62
2017/18Sparta RotterdamEredivisieDM1903%000.000.17144011830.59

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Italy CupHellas Verona15500—
2023/24Italy CupFrosinone Calcio315910—
2022/23Italy CupUS Sassuolo12600—
2021/22Italy CupUS Sassuolo216410—
2020/21Knvb BekerSparta Rotterdam110500—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Marco Benassi
Serie A · 2023
29€1.5M€1.2Mfell
Saîf-Eddine Khaoui
Ligue 1 · 2022
27€1.5M€2.0Mrose
Dor Peretz
Serie A · 2022
27€1.4M€1.5Mflat
Eduardo Henrique
Serie A · 2021
26€1.7M€1.0Mfell
Valerio Verre
Serie A · 2023
29€1.8M€1.4Mfell
Abdelhamid Sabiri
Serie A · 2023
27€2.5M€1.7Mfell
Bongani Zungu
Ligue 1 · 2020
28€1.6M€900kfell
Ismael Diomande
Ligue 1 · 2019
27€1.3M€550kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
9 Jul 2024FrosinoneHellas Verona€2.4M€2.7M
13 Jul 2023SassuoloFrosinone€700k€2.7M
1 Jul 2022Sparta R.Sassuolo€1.0M€3.0M
30 Jun 2022SassuoloSparta R.Free / loan€3.0M
31 Aug 2021Sparta R.SassuoloFree / loan€3.5M
1 Jul 2018Sparta U21Sparta R.Unknown€150k
1 Jul 2017Sparta U19Sparta U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Sparta R. U17Sparta U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Alphense B. U17Sparta R. U17Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Alphense B. JgdAlphense B. U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012UVS Leiden YoutAlphense B. JgdFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.