Mathias Pereira Lage
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mathias Pereira Lage's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-5.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-2.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.72x the positional average in the league (2032 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 8
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 53.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -51% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2032 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 53 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1283
- Opponent strength
- 1507
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €849k – €2.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 15 pts; changed club; team strength down (-189 Elo); role change LW -> ST; relative output down 25% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -57% to -38%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | ST | 28 | 2032 | 66% | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.36 | 1507 | 1283 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | LW | 29 | 1572 | 51% | 2 | 7 | 0.52 | 0.40 | 1451 | 1472 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | LW | 30 | 1181 | 39% | 3 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 1460 | 1504 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | LM | 24 | 1269 | 37% | 2 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.38 | 1436 | 1399 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | LM | 24 | 1039 | 30% | 4 | 3 | 0.61 | 0.51 | 1381 | 1352 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | LM | 28 | 1472 | 43% | 4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.23 | 1440 | 1326 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | LM | 25 | 1543 | 61% | 1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.28 | 1429 | 1415 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 4 | 264 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 370 | 1 | 0 | 1672 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jodel Dossou Ligue 1 · 2022 | 30 | €1.8M | €800k | fell |
| Jim Allevinah Ligue 1 · 2024 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Alessandro Rosina Serie A · 2013 | 29 | €1.8M | €1.7M | flat |
| Ola Toivonen Ligue 1 · 2015 | 29 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Pavel Pogrebnyak Premier League · 2013 | 30 | €4.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Edgaras Cesnauskis Premier Liga · 2013 | 29 | €1.2M | €200k | fell |
| Sandro Ramírez Laliga · 2024 | 29 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Sergey Kornilenko Premier Liga · 2013 | 30 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Stade Brestois | St. Pauli | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Angers SCO | Stade Brestois | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jul 2019 | Clermont Foot | Angers SCO | €1.5M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Clermont B | Clermont Foot | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Clermont U19 | Clermont B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Clermont 63 U17 | Clermont U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Clermont For. | Clermont 63 U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.