Rodrigo Conceição

26 yrs · Right-back (also LB) · Portugal
CD Tondela · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 175 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€500k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€138k – €366k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€329k – €769k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€310k – €790k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€37k – €631k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€138k – €366k
Model value (performance-implied)€329k – €769k
Projected value (24 months)€310k – €790k
Dashed line: current market value (€500k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Rodrigo Conceição's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 98

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average6.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €184k vs market €500k
Expected appreciationNeutral+1% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1431 (47% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.06
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.15
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
7 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1194
Opponent strength
1334
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€310k – €790k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -16% (IQR -43% to +28%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1431 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
66 (DEF)
Relative output kept
57%–168%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
76%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26CD TondelaLiga PortugalLB20143147%100.060.15133411940.58
2022/23FC PortoLiga PortugalRB1654318%000.000.03136817440.68
2021/22Moreirense FCLiga PortugalRB1337612%020.480.25137312790.67

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueFC Porto22001604

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Jordan Mustoe
Jupiler Pro League · 2017
26€400k€150kfell
Cristian Tassano
Liga Portugal · 2023
27€400k€500krose
Rémy Amieux
Eredivisie · 2013
27€500k€300kfell
Chima Akas
Liga Portugal · 2020
26€400k€350kflat
Yuval Shpungin
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
27€500k€400kfell
Igor Formiga
Liga Portugal · 2024
25€400k€2.0Mrose
Nikola Gulan
Jupiler Pro League · 2017
28€400k€550krose
Kevin van Diermen
Eredivisie · 2015
26€300k€150kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
12 Dec 2025Without ClubTondelaUnknown€500k
1 Jul 2025FC ZürichWithout ClubUnknown€600k
17 Aug 2023PortoFC ZürichFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2022FC Porto BPortoUnknown€500k
30 Jun 2022MoreirenseFC Porto BFree / loan€500k
22 Jul 2021FC Porto BMoreirenseFree / loan€650k
27 Aug 2020Benfica BFC Porto BFree / loan€300k
1 Jul 2019Benfica U19Benfica BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Benfica U17Benfica U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Benfica U15Benfica U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2015Boavista U15Benfica U15UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Anadia Sub-15Boavista U15UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Imortal YouthAnadia Sub-15Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2013Olhanense CJImortal YouthUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Belenenses YthOlhanense CJUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.