
Rodrigo Conceição
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rodrigo Conceição's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 98
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 6.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €184k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1431 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1194
- Opponent strength
- 1334
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €310k – €790k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -16% (IQR -43% to +28%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1431 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | LB | 20 | 1431 | 47% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 1334 | 1194 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | RB | 16 | 543 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1368 | 1744 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | Moreirense FC | Liga Portugal | RB | 13 | 376 | 12% | 0 | 2 | 0.48 | 0.25 | 1373 | 1279 | 0.67 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1604 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mustoe Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 26 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Cristian Tassano Liga Portugal · 2023 | 27 | €400k | €500k | rose |
| Rémy Amieux Eredivisie · 2013 | 27 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Chima Akas Liga Portugal · 2020 | 26 | €400k | €350k | flat |
| Yuval Shpungin Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 27 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Igor Formiga Liga Portugal · 2024 | 25 | €400k | €2.0M | rose |
| Nikola Gulan Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 28 | €400k | €550k | rose |
| Kevin van Diermen Eredivisie · 2015 | 26 | €300k | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Dec 2025 | Without Club | Tondela | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2025 | FC Zürich | Without Club | Unknown | €600k |
| 17 Aug 2023 | Porto | FC Zürich | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FC Porto B | Porto | Unknown | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Moreirense | FC Porto B | Free / loan | €500k |
| 22 Jul 2021 | FC Porto B | Moreirense | Free / loan | €650k |
| 27 Aug 2020 | Benfica B | FC Porto B | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Benfica U19 | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Boavista U15 | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Anadia Sub-15 | Boavista U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Imortal Youth | Anadia Sub-15 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Olhanense CJ | Imortal Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Belenenses Yth | Olhanense CJ | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.