Wojciech Szczesny

36 yrs · Goalkeeper · Poland
FC Barcelona · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 195 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€800k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€282k – €1.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€997k – €2.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€511k – €966k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€44k – €2.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€282k – €1.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€997k – €2.6M
Projected value (24 months)€511k – €966k
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Wojciech Szczesny's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.0M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceHigh88.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable36.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €376k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationNeutral+9% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €40.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
720 (21% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
88 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1787
Opponent strength
1471
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€511k – €966k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -47% to -22%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 720 league minutes last season.
  • ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC BarcelonaLaligaGK872021%000.000.00147117870.95
2024/25FC BarcelonaLaligaGK15135039%000.000.00150117920.95
2023/24Juventus FCSerie AGK35315092%000.000.00148116210.98
2022/23Juventus FCSerie AGK28247372%000.000.00149016140.94
2021/22Juventus FCSerie AGK33297087%000.000.00145016230.89
2020/21Juventus FCSerie AGK30267878%010.030.01145916980.90
2019/20Juventus FCSerie AGK29259276%000.000.00143916430.82
2018/19Juventus FCSerie AGK28252074%000.000.00146617010.78
2017/18Juventus FCSerie AGK17153045%000.000.00142618200.86
2016/17Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie AGK383420100%000.000.00146617110.88
2015/16Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie AGK34306089%000.000.00148216650.95
2014/15Arsenal FCPremier LeagueGK17149944%000.000.00154617291.06
2013/14Arsenal FCPremier LeagueGK37333097%000.000.00153617041.12
2012/13Arsenal FCPremier LeagueGK25225066%000.000.00151716831.07

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona4278001660
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona8750001698
2024/25Copa Del ReyFC Barcelona548000—
2024/25SupercopaFC Barcelona2146001731
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueJuventus FC8704001574
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC4360001610
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC7630001662
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC7660001577
2020/21Supercoppa ItalianaJuventus FC190001608
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC7630001602
2019/20Supercoppa ItalianaJuventus FC190001539
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC10900001651
2018/19Italy CupJuventus FC218000—
2018/19Supercoppa ItalianaJuventus FC190001542
2017/18Italy CupJuventus FC218000—
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC291001498
2016/17Uefa Champions League QualifyingAssociazione Sportiva Roma190001528
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma8679001697
2014/15Fa CupArsenal FC548000—
2014/15Uefa Champions LeagueArsenal FC4331001572
2014/15Uefa Champions League QualifyingArsenal FC2180001555
2014/15Community ShieldArsenal FC190001788
2013/14Uefa Champions LeagueArsenal FC7578001666
2013/14Uefa Champions League QualifyingArsenal FC2180001585
2012/13Fa CupArsenal FC436000—
2012/13Uefa Champions LeagueArsenal FC3270001567

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Marco Storari
Serie A · 2014
37€500k€400kfell
Sven Ulreich
Bundesliga · 2022
34€900k€700kfell
Alexander Meyer
Bundesliga · 2024
33€800k€500kfell
José Manuel Pinto
Laliga · 2013
38€300k€300kflat
Miguel Ángel Moyá
Laliga · 2017
33€2.0M€1.5Mfell
Artur Moraes
Liga Portugal · 2015
34€700k€100kfell
Roman Weidenfeller
Bundesliga · 2017
37€1.0M€750kfell
Orestis Karnezis
Serie A · 2019
34€1.5M€500kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
2 Oct 2024Career breakBarcelonaUnknown€6.0M
27 Aug 2024JuventusCareer breakUnknown€6.0M
19 Jul 2017ArsenalJuventus€18.4M€17.0M
30 Jun 2017RomaArsenalFree / loan€17.0M
29 Jul 2015ArsenalRomaFree / loan€10.0M
30 May 2010BrentfordArsenalFree / loan€475k
20 Nov 2009ArsenalBrentfordFree / loan€50k
1 Jul 2008Arsenal U18ArsenalUnknown€100k
1 Jan 2006Legia Yth.Arsenal U18€50kData unavailable
1 Jul 2004Agrykola WarszawaLegia Yth.UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.