Martin Terrier

29 yrs · Left winger (also AM) · France
Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 184 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€8.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€3.5M – €7.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€5.2M – €9.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.2M – €6.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.7M – €5.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€3.5M – €7.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€5.2M – €9.0M
Projected value (24 months)€2.2M – €6.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€8.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Martin Terrier's performance-implied value at EUR 5.2M-9.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.5M-7.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-6.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (671 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceHigh81.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.3 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €5.3M vs market €8.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-57% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €35.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
671 (22% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.67
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.38
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
81 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1626
Opponent strength
1509
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.2M – €6.2M

Trajectory drivers: role change LW -> AM; relative output up 55% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -36% (IQR -52% to -4%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Small sample: 671 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaAM1867122%410.670.38150916260.94
2024/25Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaLW1558319%210.460.25151516810.94
2023/24Stade Rennais FCLigue 1LW24153450%730.590.44145915070.87
2022/23Stade Rennais FCLigue 1LW16132939%940.880.48141015620.82
2021/22Stade Rennais FCLigue 1LW37280782%2140.800.57142015810.86
2020/21Stade Rennais FCLigue 1LW34245672%970.590.50144014450.75
2019/20Olympique LyonLigue 1LW23119748%120.230.24142115660.82
2018/19Olympique LyonLigue 1LW32148043%900.550.36141216040.82
2017/18RC Strasbourg AlsaceLigue 1LW25167149%340.380.43144613420.85
2016/17LOSC LilleLigue 1LW112477%100.360.46142014480.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen318010—
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen3156001876
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen4102011609
2024/25Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayer 04 Leverkusen137001637
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueStade Rennais FC7408111556
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueStade Rennais FC6390311476
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingStade Rennais FC2117011518
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueStade Rennais FC3242011609
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueOlympique Lyon5240101680
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueOlympique Lyon3159001708

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Saúl Ñíguez
Laliga · 2023
29€10.0M€3.0Mfell
Emanuele Giaccherini
Serie A · 2013
28€7.5M€4.5Mfell
Rick Karsdorp
Serie A · 2024
29€5.0M€2.5Mfell
Nigel de Jong
Serie A · 2013
29€7.0M€8.0Mflat
Danny
Premier Liga · 2013
30€14.0M€6.0Mfell
Rade Krunic
Serie A · 2021
28€6.0M€10.0Mrose
Nuri Sahin
Bundesliga · 2016
28€6.5M€4.5Mfell
Lars Bender
Bundesliga · 2017
28€10.0M€9.0Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
18 Jul 2024Stade RennaisLeverkusen€20.0M€20.0M
6 Jul 2020LyonStade Rennais€12.0M€10.5M
30 Jun 2018R. StrasbourgLyonFree / loan€9.0M
27 Jan 2018LyonR. StrasbourgFree / loan€12.0M
26 Jan 2018LilleLyon€11.0M€12.0M
25 Jan 2018R. StrasbourgLilleFree / loan€12.0M
18 Aug 2017LilleR. StrasbourgFree / loan€400k
1 Jul 2016LOSC Lille U19LilleUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014LOSC Lille U17LOSC Lille U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012LOSC Lille Yth.LOSC Lille U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.