
Martin Terrier
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Martin Terrier's performance-implied value at EUR 5.2M-9.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.5M-7.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-6.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (671 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 81.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.3M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -57% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 671 (22% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.67
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1626
- Opponent strength
- 1509
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.2M – €6.2M
Trajectory drivers: role change LW -> AM; relative output up 55% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -36% (IQR -52% to -4%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Small sample: 671 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | AM | 18 | 671 | 22% | 4 | 1 | 0.67 | 0.38 | 1509 | 1626 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | LW | 15 | 583 | 19% | 2 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.25 | 1515 | 1681 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | LW | 24 | 1534 | 50% | 7 | 3 | 0.59 | 0.44 | 1459 | 1507 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | LW | 16 | 1329 | 39% | 9 | 4 | 0.88 | 0.48 | 1410 | 1562 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | LW | 37 | 2807 | 82% | 21 | 4 | 0.80 | 0.57 | 1420 | 1581 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | LW | 34 | 2456 | 72% | 9 | 7 | 0.59 | 0.50 | 1440 | 1445 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | LW | 23 | 1197 | 48% | 1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 1421 | 1566 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | LW | 32 | 1480 | 43% | 9 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.36 | 1412 | 1604 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | LW | 25 | 1671 | 49% | 3 | 4 | 0.38 | 0.43 | 1446 | 1342 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | LW | 11 | 247 | 7% | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.46 | 1420 | 1448 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 156 | 0 | 0 | 1876 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 4 | 102 | 0 | 1 | 1609 |
| 2024/25 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1637 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 7 | 408 | 1 | 1 | 1556 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 6 | 390 | 3 | 1 | 1476 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Stade Rennais FC | 2 | 117 | 0 | 1 | 1518 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Stade Rennais FC | 3 | 242 | 0 | 1 | 1609 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 240 | 1 | 0 | 1680 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Lyon | 3 | 159 | 0 | 0 | 1708 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saúl Ñíguez Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €10.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Emanuele Giaccherini Serie A · 2013 | 28 | €7.5M | €4.5M | fell |
| Rick Karsdorp Serie A · 2024 | 29 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Nigel de Jong Serie A · 2013 | 29 | €7.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Danny Premier Liga · 2013 | 30 | €14.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Rade Krunic Serie A · 2021 | 28 | €6.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Nuri Sahin Bundesliga · 2016 | 28 | €6.5M | €4.5M | fell |
| Lars Bender Bundesliga · 2017 | 28 | €10.0M | €9.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2024 | Stade Rennais | Leverkusen | €20.0M | €20.0M |
| 6 Jul 2020 | Lyon | Stade Rennais | €12.0M | €10.5M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | R. Strasbourg | Lyon | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 27 Jan 2018 | Lyon | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 26 Jan 2018 | Lille | Lyon | €11.0M | €12.0M |
| 25 Jan 2018 | R. Strasbourg | Lille | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 18 Aug 2017 | Lille | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | LOSC Lille U19 | Lille | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | LOSC Lille U17 | LOSC Lille U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | LOSC Lille Yth. | LOSC Lille U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.