Patrick Osterhage
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Patrick Osterhage's performance-implied value at EUR 5.6M-16.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.2M-16.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.7M-14.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.66x the positional average in the league (1187 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 15
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 76.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €11.2M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1187 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 76 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1551
- Opponent strength
- 1475
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.7M – €14.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 35 pts; role change CM -> DM; relative output up 63% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -58% to -0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1187 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | DM | 20 | 1187 | 39% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1475 | 1551 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CM | 30 | 2273 | 74% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 1504 | 1505 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | VfL Bochum | Bundesliga | CM | 24 | 1863 | 61% | 2 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 1496 | 1372 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | VfL Bochum | Bundesliga | CM | 23 | 1023 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1548 | 1409 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | VfL Bochum | Bundesliga | CM | 13 | 573 | 19% | 0 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.34 | 1569 | 1419 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 8 | 481 | 1 | 0 | 1480 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 3 | 166 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 3 | 248 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Bochum | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Bochum | 2 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Bochum | 2 | 132 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Spinazzola Serie A · 2018 | 25 | €12.0M | €14.5M | rose |
| Josip Ilicic Serie A · 2014 | 26 | €7.5M | €15.0M | rose |
| Younès Belhanda Bundesliga · 2016 | 26 | €7.5M | €7.0M | flat |
| Andrea Poli Serie A · 2014 | 25 | €10.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Angelo Fulgini Ligue 1 · 2023 | 27 | €9.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Stefan Reinartz Bundesliga · 2014 | 25 | €9.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Marvin Martin Ligue 1 · 2014 | 26 | €8.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Toma Bašić Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €8.0M | €2.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | VfL Bochum | Freiburg | €4.8M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | B. Dortmund II | VfL Bochum | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | B. Dortmund U19 | B. Dortmund II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | W. Bremen U17 | B. Dortmund U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | W. Bremen Yth. | W. Bremen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Marklohe Jgd. | W. Bremen Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.