Hamza Mendyl
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hamza Mendyl's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.7M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 15.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €266k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 471 (20% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 16 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1255
- Opponent strength
- 1163
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €363k – €723k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -38% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 471 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | LB | 8 | 471 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 1163 | 1255 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | LB | 7 | 614 | 26% | 1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 1238 | 1288 | 0.35 |
| 2024/25 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 12 | 581 | 22% | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 1355 | 1323 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | LM | 20 | 1512 | 56% | 3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.27 | 1411 | 1302 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 28 | 2068 | 68% | 0 | 4 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 1321 | 1338 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | LM | 22 | 1033 | 30% | 1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.36 | 1265 | 1238 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | LB | 3 | 94 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1361 | 1303 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Dijon FCO | Ligue 1 | LB | 18 | 1442 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 1432 | 1346 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | LB | 9 | 544 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1459 | 1482 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | LB | 12 | 852 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1455 | 1372 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | LB | 1 | 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1340 | 1448 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aris Thessalonikis | 2 | 128 | 0 | 0 | 1359 |
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 2 | 77 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | FC Schalke 04 | 6 | 367 | 0 | 0 | 1628 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 91 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Larsson Superliga · 2020 | 30 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| Valentinos Vlachos Super League 1 · 2020 | 28 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Vegar Hedenstad Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €800k | €450k | fell |
| Anastasios Papazoglou Super League 1 · 2015 | 27 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Steven Thicot Super League 1 · 2017 | 30 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Ilya Gaponov Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Mateo Barac Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Rustam Ashurmatov Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €800k | €750k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan 2025 | OH Leuven | Aris Saloniki | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 5 Jul 2022 | FC Schalke 04 | OH Leuven | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Gaziantep FK | FC Schalke 04 | Free / loan | €800k |
| 24 Jul 2021 | FC Schalke 04 | Gaziantep FK | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Dijon | FC Schalke 04 | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 21 Aug 2019 | FC Schalke 04 | Dijon | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 17 Aug 2018 | Lille | FC Schalke 04 | €6.0M | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | LOSC Lille B | Lille | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jan 2016 | AM Football | LOSC Lille B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Wydad AC Youth | AM Football | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.