Douglas Luiz

The model rates Douglas Luiz's performance-implied value at EUR 10.4M-32.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.4M-20.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.6M-16.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.64x the positional average in the league (922 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

922 (27% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.10

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.08

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

88 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

1.30 (rank 1)

Team strength (Elo)

1692

Opponent strength

1595

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

improving

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€6.6M – €16.1M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+62 Elo); league level up (+111 Elo); role change CM -> DM; relative output up 36% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -60% to -36%).

• ⚠Limited sample: 922 league minutes last season.
• ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.