Jovane Cabral
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jovane Cabral's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.52x the positional average in the league (1679 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 72
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 19.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €590k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1679 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.43
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.62
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 20 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1195
- Opponent strength
- 1335
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €457k – €989k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 17 pts; relative output up 28% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +7% (IQR -49% to +51%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1679 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | LW | 27 | 1679 | 55% | 7 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.62 | 1335 | 1195 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | LW | 26 | 1149 | 38% | 2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.50 | 1347 | 1152 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | US Salernitana 1919 | Serie A | SS | 12 | 679 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.51 | 1416 | 1255 | 0.98 |
| 2023/24 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | LW | 3 | 133 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1163 | 1490 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LW | 4 | 50 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1273 | 1669 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LW | 10 | 342 | 11% | 1 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.31 | 1393 | 1692 | 0.67 |
| 2021/22 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | ST | 3 | 191 | 6% | 1 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.42 | 1485 | 1561 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LW | 24 | 676 | 22% | 5 | 4 | 1.20 | 0.55 | 1335 | 1617 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LW | 16 | 1044 | 34% | 6 | 3 | 0.78 | 0.48 | 1372 | 1492 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RW | 18 | 613 | 20% | 2 | 4 | 0.88 | 0.35 | 1306 | 1634 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Cape Verde | 1 | 61 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | US Salernitana 1919 | 1 | 27 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1608 |
| 2021/22 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1493 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 3 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1622 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1676 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Sporting CP | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1369 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 3 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1501 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 7 | 227 | 2 | 1 | 1453 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Didier Lamkel Zé Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Devante Cole Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 26 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Georgiy Gongadze Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €900k | €500k | fell |
| Carlos Calvo Super League 1 · 2014 | 29 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Krisztián Németh Eredivisie · 2014 | 25 | €900k | €1.4M | rose |
| Frédéric Gounongbe Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 27 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Elvis Manu Super Lig · 2019 | 26 | €1.0M | €1.3M | rose |
| Kenji Gorré Liga Portugal · 2021 | 27 | €500k | €800k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Estrela Amadora | Without Club | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 2 Sept 2024 | Sporting | Estrela Amadora | €800k | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Olympiacos | Sporting | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Sporting | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 30 Jan 2024 | Salernitana | Sporting | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 23 Aug 2023 | Sporting | Salernitana | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Lazio | Sporting | Free / loan | €5.5M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Sporting | Lazio | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sporting B | Sporting | Unknown | €275k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Sporting U19 | Sporting B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Sporting U17 | Sporting U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Nhagar | Sporting U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.