Egor Golenkov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Egor Golenkov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.71x the positional average in the league (1891 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract ends within 6 months: can sign a pre-contract; small or no fee.
Bargain Index: 67
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 28.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €117k vs market €1.7M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1891 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 29 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1301
- Opponent strength
- 1309
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €676k – €1.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 29 pts; relative output down 31% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -73% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 6 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | ST | 29 | 1891 | 70% | 2 | 4 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 1309 | 1301 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | ST | 25 | 1116 | 41% | 5 | 3 | 0.65 | 0.55 | 1295 | 1342 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | ST | 30 | 1722 | 64% | 8 | 5 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 1336 | 1317 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | ST | 29 | 657 | 24% | 3 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.46 | 1309 | 1343 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | ST | 10 | 221 | 8% | 0 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.50 | 1311 | 1283 | 0.52 |
| 2019/20 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | ST | 9 | 133 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1335 | 1280 | 0.63 |
| 2016/17 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | ST | 1 | 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 1290 | 1313 | 0.70 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 7 | 369 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 11 | 666 | 5 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 8 | 350 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 9 | 552 | 5 | 2 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuca Liga Portugal · 2016 | 27 | €750k | €800k | flat |
| Khoren Bayramyan Premier Liga · 2019 | 27 | €1.8M | €2.5M | rose |
| Stephen Odey Superliga · 2024 | 26 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Emiljano Vila Super League 1 · 2014 | 26 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Héldon Liga Portugal · 2017 | 29 | €1.0M | €2.3M | rose |
| Reziuan Mirzov Premier Liga · 2022 | 29 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Ahmet Ilhan Özek Super Lig · 2016 | 28 | €2.0M | €550k | fell |
| Sami Super Lig · 2016 | 28 | €2.0M | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Feb 2022 | Sigma Olomouc | Rostov | Free / loan | €350k |
| 26 Aug 2021 | KS Samara | Sigma Olomouc | €115k | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | KS Samara II | KS Samara | Unknown | €275k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Leiria U19 | KS Samara II | Free / loan | €50k |
| 15 Aug 2017 | KS Samara II | Leiria U19 | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jul 2015 | Akron Konoplev | KS Samara II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.