Alejandro Catena
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alejandro Catena's performance-implied value at EUR 3.5M-7.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 14
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €2.6M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -49% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3073 (90% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 82 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1427
- Opponent strength
- 1484
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €781k – €2.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -67% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | CB | 35 | 3073 | 90% | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 1484 | 1427 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | CB | 35 | 3076 | 90% | 1 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1514 | 1484 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | CB | 30 | 2536 | 74% | 1 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 1498 | 1442 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CB | 35 | 3106 | 91% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1510 | 1398 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CB | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 1539 | 1389 | 1.05 |
| 2018/19 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CB | 2 | 177 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1452 | 1396 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 3 | 176 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 2 | 125 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | CA Osasuna | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1501 |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | CA Osasuna | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1695 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 1 | 56 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | CF Reus Deportiu | 2 | 80 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John O'Shea Premier League · 2013 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Charlie Daniels Premier League · 2017 | 31 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Sascha Riether Premier League · 2013 | 30 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Heiko Westermann Bundesliga · 2014 | 31 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Wes Morgan Premier League · 2015 | 31 | €1.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Pablo Martínez Ligue 1 · 2020 | 31 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
| Simon Francis Premier League · 2016 | 31 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Ismaël Traoré Ligue 1 · 2018 | 32 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Rayo Vallecano | CA Osasuna | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Reus Deportiu | Rayo Vallecano | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Marbella FC | Reus Deportiu | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Navalcarnero | Marbella FC | Free / loan | €200k |
| 27 Jul 2016 | CD Móstoles | Navalcarnero | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Móstoles U19 | CD Móstoles | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.