Luiz Felipe

29 yrs · Centre-back · Italy
Rayo Vallecano · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€2.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€647k – €1.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€918k – €3.9M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€690k – €2.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€996k – €3.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€647k – €1.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€918k – €3.9M
Projected value (24 months)€690k – €2.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Luiz Felipe's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-3.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.1M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAverage54.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.3 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €863k vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationLow-24% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €22.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
470 (14% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.06
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
55 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1518
Opponent strength
1476
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€690k – €2.1M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -57% to -41%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 470 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Rayo VallecanoLaligaCB1047014%000.000.06147615180.95
2024/25Olympique MarseilleLigue 1CB41214%000.000.08164015570.88
2023/24Real Betis BalompiéLaligaCB436011%000.000.06153915201.00
2022/23Real Betis BalompiéLaligaCB23176852%000.000.02153515300.98
2021/22Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.Serie ACB31249373%010.040.04147915610.89
2020/21Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.Serie ACB1491127%000.000.03145715480.90
2019/20Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.Serie ACB26202959%110.090.07143815570.82
2018/19Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.Serie ACB17129138%110.140.10145414670.78
2017/18Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.Serie ACB18116234%000.000.03146515970.86

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Copa Del ReyRayo Vallecano112000—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueReal Betis Balompié5388001557
2022/23SupercopaReal Betis Balompié1120001731
2022/23Copa Del ReyReal Betis Balompié112000—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueSocietà Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.7630001507
2021/22Italy CupSocietà Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.221000—
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueSocietà Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.4176011611
2019/20Italy CupSocietà Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.215100—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueSocietà Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.190001583
2019/20Supercoppa ItalianaSocietà Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.190001756
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueSocietà Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.5393001506
2018/19Italy CupSocietà Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.327001—
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueSocietà Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.10830011481
2017/18Italy CupSocietà Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.314600—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Mattia Cassani
Serie A · 2013
30€2.2M€1.0Mfell
Julien Le Cardinal
Ligue 1 · 2024
27€1.5M€1.5Mflat
Damien Perquis
Laliga · 2013
29€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Fabrizio Angileri
Laliga · 2023
29€2.0M€700kfell
Matthew Kilgallon
Premier League · 2013
29€1.5M€850kfell
Gabriel Tamas
Premier League · 2013
30€2.0M€1.1Mfell
Davide Santon
Serie A · 2021
30€2.0M€500kfell
Leon Barnett
Premier League · 2013
28€2.0M€1.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
7 Jul 2025MarseilleRayo VallecanoFree / loan€5.0M
7 Jan 2025Al-IttihadMarseilleFree / loan€8.0M
7 Sept 2023Real BetisAl-Ittihad€22.0M€15.0M
4 Jul 2022LazioReal BetisFree / loan€16.0M
30 Jun 2017SalernitanaLazioFree / loan€200k
31 Aug 2016LazioSalernitanaFree / loan€50k
30 Aug 2016ItuanoLazio€750k€50k
1 Jan 2016Ituano U20ItuanoUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.