
Luiz Felipe
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luiz Felipe's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-3.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.1M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 54.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €863k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 470 (14% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1518
- Opponent strength
- 1476
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €690k – €2.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -57% to -41%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 470 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CB | 10 | 470 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1476 | 1518 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 4 | 121 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1640 | 1557 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 4 | 360 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1539 | 1520 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 23 | 1768 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1535 | 1530 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CB | 31 | 2493 | 73% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1479 | 1561 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CB | 14 | 911 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1457 | 1548 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CB | 26 | 2029 | 59% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 1438 | 1557 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CB | 17 | 1291 | 38% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 1454 | 1467 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CB | 18 | 1162 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1465 | 1597 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 5 | 388 | 0 | 0 | 1557 |
| 2022/23 | Supercopa | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1731 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | 1507 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 4 | 176 | 0 | 1 | 1611 |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 2 | 151 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1583 |
| 2019/20 | Supercoppa Italiana | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1756 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 5 | 393 | 0 | 0 | 1506 |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 10 | 830 | 0 | 1 | 1481 |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 3 | 146 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattia Cassani Serie A · 2013 | 30 | €2.2M | €1.0M | fell |
| Julien Le Cardinal Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Damien Perquis Laliga · 2013 | 29 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Fabrizio Angileri Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €2.0M | €700k | fell |
| Matthew Kilgallon Premier League · 2013 | 29 | €1.5M | €850k | fell |
| Gabriel Tamas Premier League · 2013 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.1M | fell |
| Davide Santon Serie A · 2021 | 30 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Leon Barnett Premier League · 2013 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2025 | Marseille | Rayo Vallecano | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 7 Jan 2025 | Al-Ittihad | Marseille | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 7 Sept 2023 | Real Betis | Al-Ittihad | €22.0M | €15.0M |
| 4 Jul 2022 | Lazio | Real Betis | Free / loan | €16.0M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Salernitana | Lazio | Free / loan | €200k |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Lazio | Salernitana | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Aug 2016 | Ituano | Lazio | €750k | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Ituano U20 | Ituano | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.