Domagoj Vida

37 yrs · Centre-back (also RB) · Croatia
Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos · Super League 1 · Foot: right · Height: 184 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€500k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€137k – €459k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€200k – €632k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€128k – €481k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€259k – €494k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€137k – €459k
Model value (performance-implied)€200k – €632k
Projected value (24 months)€128k – €481k
Dashed line: current market value (€500k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Domagoj Vida's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceAbove average67.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable37.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €183k vs market €500k
Expected appreciationVery low-43% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €12.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1016 (43% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.03
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
68 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.42 (rank 16)
Team strength (Elo)
1512
Opponent strength
1196
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€128k – €481k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 35 pts; team strength up (+61 Elo); league level up (+40 Elo); relative output down 46% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -49% (IQR -71% to -34%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Age 37: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1016 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
25 (DEF)
Relative output kept
55%–230%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
68%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Athlitiki Enosi KonstantinoupoleosSuper League 1CB12101643%000.000.03119615120.43
2024/25Athlitiki Enosi KonstantinoupoleosSuper League 1CB21183979%010.050.05129014500.35
2023/24Athlitiki Enosi KonstantinoupoleosSuper League 1CB19166571%400.220.10125714720.42
2022/23Athlitiki Enosi KonstantinoupoleosSuper League 1CB22197284%120.140.09124414240.37
2021/22Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigCB28239570%100.040.04125613420.42
2020/21Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigCB34302184%500.150.10126914080.37
2019/20Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigCB31268388%500.170.12133314010.45
2018/19Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigCB31269488%320.170.11138415210.58
2017/18Dynamo KyivPremier LigaCB981041%200.220.10134315470.62
2017/18Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigCB1375125%100.120.06135216340.68
2016/17Dynamo KyivPremier LigaCB28244885%320.180.09136615660.56
2015/16Dynamo KyivPremier LigaCB18159868%200.110.06133716210.54
2014/15Dynamo KyivPremier LigaRB19171073%220.210.13139315730.54
2013/14Dynamo KyivPremier LigaCB17136852%010.070.05138115090.63
2012/13Dynamo KyivPremier LigaCB12108040%100.080.07139515650.70

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Kypello ElladasAthlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos218000—
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingAthlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos12001465
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingAthlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos4360001332
2024/25Kypello ElladasAthlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos19000—
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueAthlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos5450101542
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingAthlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos4360101558
2023/24Kypello ElladasAthlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos112000—
2022/23Kypello ElladasAthlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos210700—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü2180001676
2020/21Uefa Champions League QualifyingBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü190001512
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü5450001484
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü5450001549
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü2180001491
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueDynamo Kyiv4350001438
2017/18Uefa Champions League QualifyingDynamo Kyiv2180001466
2017/18Uefa Europa League QualifyingDynamo Kyiv2180001370
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü116001895
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueDynamo Kyiv6540001670
2016/17Ukrainian CupDynamo Kyiv432000—
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueDynamo Kyiv5372001659
2015/16Ukrainian CupDynamo Kyiv327001—
2014/15Uefa Europa LeagueDynamo Kyiv10876101473
2014/15Ukrainian CupDynamo Kyiv657001—
2013/14Ukrainian CupDynamo Kyiv430611—
2013/14Uefa Europa LeagueDynamo Kyiv3210001498
2013/14Uefa Europa League QualifyingDynamo Kyiv2103001388
2012/13Uefa Champions LeagueGNK Dinamo Zagreb6540001628
2012/13Uefa Champions League QualifyingGNK Dinamo Zagreb6540211432
2012/13Uefa Europa LeagueDynamo Kyiv2180001586

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Vyacheslav Checher
Premier Liga · 2016
36€400k€100kfell
Éric Abidal
Super League 1 · 2015
36€1.0M€1.0Mflat
Damien Marcq
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
34€350k€200kfell
Mikael Antonsson
Superliga · 2016
35€500k€150kfell
Vangelis Nastos
Super League 1 · 2015
35€250k€200kfell
Fernando Varela
Super League 1 · 2022
35€500k€100kfell
Georgios Tzavellas
Super League 1 · 2023
36€400k€250kfell
Ehsan Hajsafi
Super League 1 · 2024
34€600k€275kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
31 Jul 2022BesiktasAEK AthensFree / loan€1.9M
4 Jan 2018Dynamo KyivBesiktasFree / loan€9.0M
2 Jan 2013Dinamo ZagrebDynamo Kyiv€5.0M€4.0M
1 Jul 2011LeverkusenDinamo Zagreb€1.3M€1.8M
1 Jul 2010NK OsijekLeverkusen€2.4M€3.0M
1 Jul 2006NK Osijek U19NK OsijekUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.