Théo Ndicka

26 yrs · Left-back (also LM) · France
FC Oleksandriya · Premier Liga · Foot: left · Height: 169 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€300k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€82k – €361k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€193k – €378k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€133k – €358k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€168k – €296k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€82k – €361k
Model value (performance-implied)€193k – €378k
Projected value (24 months)€133k – €358k
Dashed line: current market value (€300k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Théo Ndicka's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceBelow average0.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.2 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €187k vs market €300k
Expected appreciationLow-17% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
476 (18% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.09
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
1 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1068
Opponent strength
1156
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€133k – €358k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -38% to +7%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 476 league minutes last season.
  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
11 (DEF)
Relative output kept
108%–176%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
82%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaLB847618%000.000.09115610680.25
2024/25FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaLB4873%101.030.18110113090.28
2022/23KV OostendeJupiler Pro LeagueLM23122840%220.290.40133311910.58
2021/22KV OostendeJupiler Pro LeagueLB30224973%020.080.11134712200.49
2020/21KV OostendeJupiler Pro LeagueLB1675925%010.120.14138113150.55

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Oleksandriya2148001341
2025/26Ukrainian CupFC Oleksandriya12200—
2024/25Ukrainian CupFC Oleksandriya15700—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
James McGarry
Scottish Premiership · 2024
26€300k€400krose
Bogdan Biloshevskyi
Premier Liga · 2024
24€250k€100kfell
Viktor Genev
Scottish Premiership · 2015
27€300k€200kfell
Yegor Klymenchuk
Premier Liga · 2023
26€200k€200kflat
Dmytro Fateev
Premier Liga · 2024
30€200k€200kflat
Abdul Rahman Weiss
Super League 1 · 2023
25€350k€350kflat
Stelios Tsoukanis
Super League 1 · 2015
25€200k€350krose
Muhammet Özkal
Super Lig · 2021
22€300k€150kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jan 2026FC OleksandriyaWithout ClubUnknown€300k
27 Jan 2025GrasshoppersFC OleksandriyaFree / loan€100k
29 Aug 2023KV OostendeGrasshoppersUnknown€500k
2 Jul 2020Olymp. Lyon BKV OostendeFree / loanData unavailable
30 Jun 2020Bourg-en-BresseOlymp. Lyon BFree / loanData unavailable
2 Sept 2019Olymp. Lyon BBourg-en-BresseFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2018Olymp. Lyon U19Olymp. Lyon BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Olymp. Lyon U17Olymp. Lyon U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015ASPTT Dijon JgdOlymp. Lyon U17Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Dijon JugendASPTT Dijon JgdFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Théo Ndicka · MoneyballAI