Maksym Melnychuk
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maksym Melnychuk's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 85
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 0.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €224k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1284 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 0 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1042
- Opponent strength
- 1175
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €169k – €466k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 19 pts; changed club; relative output down 55% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -46% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1284 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Kudrivka | Premier Liga | LB | 18 | 1284 | 48% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1175 | 1042 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Ingulets Petrove | Premier Liga | LB | 9 | 775 | 29% | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 1178 | 1063 | 0.28 |
| 2022/23 | Ingulets Petrove | Premier Liga | LB | 8 | 359 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1289 | 1151 | 0.38 |
| 2022/23 | Vorskla Poltava | Premier Liga | LB | 3 | 184 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1278 | 1296 | 0.38 |
| 2021/22 | Ingulets Petrove | Premier Liga | LB | 4 | 105 | 7% | 0 | 1 | 0.86 | 0.20 | 1185 | 1177 | 0.45 |
| 2019/20 | Vorskla Poltava | Premier Liga | LB | 4 | 336 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1329 | 1216 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | Ukrainian Cup | Ingulets Petrove | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Ukrainian Cup | Vorskla Poltava | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vadym Chervak Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Luka Gucek Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Patrick Bahanack Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Konstantinos Provydakis Super League 1 · 2022 | 26 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Praxitelis Vouros Super League 1 · 2021 | 26 | €600k | €700k | flat |
| Atila Turan Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €500k | €175k | fell |
| Erdi Dikmen Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Higor Gabriel Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €200k | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Mar 2025 | Ingulets | FC Kudrivka | Free / loan | €300k |
| 22 Feb 2023 | Vorskla Poltava | Ingulets | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Ingulets | Vorskla Poltava | Free / loan | €100k |
| 22 Jul 2021 | Vorskla Poltava | Ingulets | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Vorskla II | Vorskla Poltava | Unknown | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Chornomorets | Vorskla II | Free / loan | €200k |
| 27 Aug 2020 | Vorskla II | Chornomorets | Free / loan | €100k |
| 20 Jul 2018 | Dynamo Kyiv U19 | Vorskla II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 27 Jul 2016 | Dynamo Kyiv U17 | Dynamo Kyiv U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.