Guillaume Dietsch
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Guillaume Dietsch's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 6.8th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €169k vs market €250k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 900 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.01
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1207
- Opponent strength
- 1405
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €139k – €371k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -26% to +58%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 900 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 214 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–140%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FCV Dender EH | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 10 | 900 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1405 | 1207 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | FCV Dender EH | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 1 | 48 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1329 | 1267 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | GK | 1 | 72 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1459 | 1284 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | RFC Seraing | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 23 | 2070 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1347 | 1128 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | RFC Seraing | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 33 | 2962 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1347 | 1144 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Relegation Play Offs | FCV Dender EH | 4 | 294 | 0 | 0 | 1302 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Vekic Liga Portugal · 2023 | 25 | €300k | €450k | rose |
| Koen Bucker Eredivisie · 2022 | 26 | €175k | €125k | fell |
| Arjan van Dijk Eredivisie · 2014 | 27 | €200k | €150k | fell |
| Roman Mysak Premier Liga · 2018 | 27 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| André Moreira Liga Portugal · 2020 | 25 | €400k | €1.0M | rose |
| Babacar Niasse Liga Portugal · 2021 | 25 | €350k | €650k | rose |
| Harm Zeinstra Eredivisie · 2016 | 27 | €250k | €150k | fell |
| Fernando Castro Liga Portugal · 2022 | 25 | €300k | €300k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | FCV Dender EH | Without Club | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | FC Metz | FCV Dender EH | Unknown | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | RFC Seraing | FC Metz | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | FC Metz | RFC Seraing | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Nov 2018 | Metz U17 | FC Metz | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Metz Youth | Metz U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | US Forbach Jgd | Metz Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.