Boris Popović
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Boris Popović's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 69
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 25.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €729k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1158 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 25 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1310
- Opponent strength
- 1330
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €532k – €1.4M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 113% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +26% (IQR -39% to +74%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1158 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | CB | 17 | 1158 | 38% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1330 | 1310 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | CB | 16 | 894 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1361 | 1285 | 0.51 |
| 2024/25 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 2 | 159 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1245 | 1361 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 29 | 1997 | 74% | 0 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 1375 | 1394 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 33 | 2902 | 95% | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1307 | 1373 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 19 | 1535 | 50% | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 1366 | 1305 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Cercle Brugge | 2 | 102 | 0 | 0 | 1326 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Cercle Brugge | 2 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1504 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Considine Scottish Premiership · 2013 | 26 | €1.0M | €650k | fell |
| Dino Arslanagic Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 25 | €900k | €2.8M | rose |
| Giannis Zaradoukas Super League 1 · 2013 | 28 | €900k | €450k | fell |
| Loïc Bessilé Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 24 | €850k | €400k | fell |
| Igor Yurganov Premier Liga · 2020 | 27 | €650k | €1.0M | rose |
| Matías Pérez Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €1.2M | €3.0M | rose |
| Miguel Vieira Liga Portugal · 2017 | 27 | €500k | €700k | rose |
| Abdullahi Shehu Super Lig · 2019 | 26 | €700k | €800k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Cercle Brugge | Arouca | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Arouca | Cercle Brugge | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 2 Sept 2024 | Cercle Brugge | Arouca | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 20 Jul 2021 | Monaco B | Cercle Brugge | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Monaco U19 | Monaco B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Tours FC U19 | Monaco U19 | €500k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Tours FC U17 | Tours FC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Tours FC Jugend | Tours FC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.