Hugo Magnetti
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hugo Magnetti's performance-implied value at EUR 3.5M-9.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.9M-5.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-6.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.62x the positional average in the league (2697 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 84
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 70.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.5M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2697 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 70 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1407
- Opponent strength
- 1472
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.7M – €6.3M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-64 Elo); relative output up 69% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -60% to -2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CM | 33 | 2697 | 88% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 1472 | 1407 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CM | 32 | 2331 | 76% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1445 | 1472 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CM | 33 | 2359 | 77% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 1490 | 1504 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CM | 32 | 1688 | 49% | 1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.26 | 1475 | 1399 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CM | 28 | 1459 | 43% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 1454 | 1369 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CM | 13 | 600 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1449 | 1306 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CM | 8 | 232 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1360 | 1320 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | 697 | 1 | 1 | 1655 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morten Thorsby Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €7.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Luca Cigarini Serie A · 2015 | 29 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Jordan Ferri Ligue 1 · 2022 | 30 | €5.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Benjamin André Ligue 1 · 2017 | 27 | €4.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Lucas Castro Serie A · 2016 | 27 | €5.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| Denis Glushakov Premier Liga · 2014 | 27 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Loris Benito Ligue 1 · 2020 | 28 | €3.2M | €800k | fell |
| Thomas Monconduit Ligue 1 · 2019 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2018 | Brest B | Stade Brestois | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 22 Aug 2017 | SC Bastia | Brest B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | SC Bastia B | SC Bastia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2016 | SC Bastia U19 | SC Bastia B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.