Cícero
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Cícero's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.88x the positional average in the league (1203 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 93
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 8.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €187k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1203 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1194
- Opponent strength
- 1354
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €301k – €573k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -17% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1203 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | DM | 18 | 1203 | 39% | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.23 | 1354 | 1194 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johanna Omolo Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 30 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Rafael Crivellaro Liga Portugal · 2017 | 28 | €600k | €350k | fell |
| Jesper Drost Eredivisie · 2021 | 28 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Maksim Kuzmin Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €700k | €800k | flat |
| Mitchel Paulissen Eredivisie · 2022 | 29 | €450k | €400k | flat |
| Fousseni Bamba Premier Liga · 2018 | 28 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Yevgen Zadoya Premier Liga · 2020 | 29 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Aloísio Liga Portugal · 2024 | 28 | €600k | €600k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Torreense | Tondela | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Estoril | Torreense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Cova Piedade | Estoril | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Estoril | Cova Piedade | Free / loan | €125k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Estoril U23 | Estoril | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 13 Aug 2018 | Atlético-MG B | Estoril U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 8 May 2016 | Salgueiro | Atlético-MG B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 25 Jan 2016 | Palmeiras U17 | Salgueiro | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 2 Sept 2015 | Salgueiro | Palmeiras U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.