Georgios Liavas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Georgios Liavas's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.39x the positional average in the league (780 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 20.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €473k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 780 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 21 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1254
- Opponent strength
- 1378
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €380k – €986k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 47 pts; changed club; team strength up (+98 Elo); league level up (+113 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -45% to +27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 780 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | DM | 24 | 780 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 1378 | 1254 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | DM | 23 | 1686 | 72% | 1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 1296 | 1156 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | RM | 24 | 1734 | 74% | 2 | 3 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 1251 | 1147 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | RB | 13 | 837 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1258 | 1164 | 0.37 |
| 2020/21 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | CB | 20 | 1627 | 70% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1296 | 1118 | 0.39 |
| 2019/20 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | RB | 12 | 899 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1330 | 1159 | 0.46 |
| 2018/19 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | RB | 19 | 977 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1272 | 1199 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 1 | 33 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 6 | 437 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 3 | 186 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nwankwo Obiora Liga Portugal · 2016 | 25 | €1.0M | €350k | fell |
| Aleksandar Bjelica Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 25 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Abdul Khalili Super Lig · 2019 | 27 | €550k | €1.2M | rose |
| Lorenzo Ebecilio Premier Liga · 2017 | 26 | €700k | €1.5M | rose |
| Loreintz Rosier Liga Portugal · 2023 | 25 | €1.0M | €900k | flat |
| Vitaliy Fedotov Premier Liga · 2015 | 24 | €700k | €750k | flat |
| Jordy Bruijn Eredivisie · 2023 | 27 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| David Targamadze Premier Liga · 2014 | 25 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2025 | Panetolikos | Rio Ave | €500k | €900k |
| 14 Aug 2018 | Panetolikos U19 | Panetolikos | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.