Theocharis Iliadis
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Theocharis Iliadis's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 0.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €113k vs market €350k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 879 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 1 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1129
- Opponent strength
- 1263
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €223k – €362k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -50% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 879 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athlitiki Enosi Larisas | Super League 1 | CB | 11 | 879 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1263 | 1129 | 0.43 |
| 2020/21 | Athlitiki Enosi Larisas | Super League 1 | CB | 17 | 1316 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1274 | 1120 | 0.39 |
| 2019/20 | Athlitiki Enosi Larisas | Super League 1 | CB | 2 | 135 | 6% | 1 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.19 | 1318 | 1223 | 0.46 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Larisas | 1 | 66 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Larisas | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Christensen Superliga · 2019 | 31 | €250k | €150k | fell |
| Daniel Adejo Super League 1 · 2018 | 29 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Nikola Mikic Super League 1 · 2016 | 31 | €400k | €100k | fell |
| Krzysztof Krol Super League 1 · 2016 | 29 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Mihai Leca Premier Liga · 2022 | 30 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Manolis Tzanakakis Super League 1 · 2021 | 29 | €350k | €250k | fell |
| Tekio Super League 1 · 2021 | 31 | €250k | €200k | fell |
| Marko Jovanovic Super League 1 · 2018 | 30 | €400k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2020 | Diagoras | AE Larisa | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 6 Jul 2019 | Asteras Iteas | Diagoras | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 11 Jul 2018 | Pierikos | Asteras Iteas | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 18 Jan 2018 | Volos NFC | Pierikos | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2017 | Budissa Bautzen | Volos NFC | Free / loan | €50k |
| 25 Jan 2017 | Ach.Neokesarias | Budissa Bautzen | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Aug 2014 | Unknown | Ach.Neokesarias | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Pierikos U19 | Unknown | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Pont. Katerini | Pierikos U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.