Nayel Mehssatou
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nayel Mehssatou's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.04x the positional average in the league (1014 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 58
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 26.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1014 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1341
- Opponent strength
- 1375
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €565k – €2.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 47 pts; changed club; team strength up (+140 Elo); role change DM -> CM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -40% to -29%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1014 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 25 | 1014 | 38% | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 1375 | 1341 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 29 | 2270 | 84% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 1397 | 1201 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | RM | 26 | 1934 | 72% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 1403 | 1187 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 27 | 1856 | 61% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1299 | 1209 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 5 | 450 | 15% | 0 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.30 | 1403 | 1208 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | Standard Liège | 4 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1399 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattheus Liga Portugal · 2018 | 24 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Samba Sow Super Lig · 2015 | 26 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Clint Leemans Eredivisie · 2019 | 24 | €1.0M | €650k | fell |
| Afonso Taira Liga Portugal · 2017 | 25 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| David Targamadze Premier Liga · 2014 | 25 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Mohammed Osman Eredivisie · 2020 | 26 | €1.4M | €600k | fell |
| Loreintz Rosier Liga Portugal · 2023 | 25 | €1.0M | €900k | flat |
| Pelle van Amersfoort Eredivisie · 2018 | 22 | €1.3M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | KV Kortrijk | Standard Liège | Free / loan | €2.2M |
| 21 Jan 2022 | RSC Anderlecht | KV Kortrijk | €200k | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Anderlecht U21 | RSC Anderlecht | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Anderlecht U18 | Anderlecht U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Anderlecht Yth. | Anderlecht U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.