Kirill Pechenin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kirill Pechenin's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.18x the positional average in the league (2302 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 60
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 26th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €729k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2302 (85% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1262
- Opponent strength
- 1342
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €481k – €1.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 37 pts; role change LB -> LM; relative output down 29% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -59% to -18%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | LM | 30 | 2302 | 85% | 1 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.27 | 1342 | 1262 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | LB | 27 | 1306 | 48% | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.24 | 1293 | 1257 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | LB | 6 | 515 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1331 | 1272 | 0.49 |
| 2023/24 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | LM | 12 | 231 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1294 | 1257 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | LB | 19 | 1355 | 50% | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 1317 | 1332 | 0.53 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 10 | 574 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 5 | 388 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 3 | 170 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 3 | 75 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Hoggas Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 30 | €800k | €350k | fell |
| Fernando Boldrin Super Lig · 2019 | 30 | €1.3M | €1.0M | fell |
| Danny Post Eredivisie · 2019 | 30 | €850k | €400k | fell |
| Dener Liga Portugal · 2021 | 29 | €1.0M | €900k | flat |
| Ali Messaoud Eredivisie · 2019 | 28 | €750k | €250k | fell |
| Anas Tahiri Eredivisie · 2023 | 28 | €1.2M | €500k | fell |
| Hicham Faik Eredivisie · 2020 | 28 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| Renan Bressan Liga Portugal · 2018 | 30 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2024 | Orenburg | KS Samara | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Rukh | Orenburg | Free / loan | €600k |
| 13 Feb 2021 | Dynamo Brest | Rukh | Free / loan | €450k |
| 5 Jan 2020 | Vitebsk | Dynamo Brest | €28k | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Vitebsk II | Vitebsk | Unknown | €150k |
| 31 Dec 2017 | Naftan | Vitebsk II | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Vitebsk II | Naftan | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Orsha | Vitebsk II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Vitebsk II | Orsha | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.