João Mendes

The model rates João Mendes's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.81x the positional average in the league (1505 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

1505 (49% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.24

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.32

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

28 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.40 (rank 18)

Team strength (Elo)

1147

Opponent strength

1259

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

stable

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€310k – €735k

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-265 Elo); league level down (-54 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -68% to -13%).

• ⚠Limited sample: 1505 league minutes last season.
• ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
• ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
• ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

35 (MID)

Relative output kept

77%–144%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

69%

Confidence

Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.