Patrick van Aanholt
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Patrick van Aanholt's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 37.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €141k vs market €250k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 680 (22% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.53
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1213
- Opponent strength
- 1360
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €143k – €260k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 32 pts; team strength down (-87 Elo); relative output up 436% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -69% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 680 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | LB | 13 | 680 | 22% | 1 | 3 | 0.53 | 0.28 | 1360 | 1213 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | LB | 21 | 1662 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1307 | 1300 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LB | 24 | 1101 | 36% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 1296 | 1659 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LB | 15 | 1180 | 39% | 1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.10 | 1342 | 1649 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | LB | 10 | 807 | 25% | 0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 1270 | 1535 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | LB | 35 | 2787 | 81% | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 1247 | 1326 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | LB | 22 | 1775 | 52% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 1546 | 1456 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | LB | 29 | 2511 | 73% | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 1602 | 1471 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | LB | 36 | 3198 | 94% | 3 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 1552 | 1573 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | LB | 28 | 2185 | 64% | 5 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 1572 | 1520 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Sunderland AFC | Premier League | LB | 21 | 1783 | 52% | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 1544 | 1350 | 1.07 |
| 2016/17 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | LB | 11 | 714 | 21% | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.20 | 1512 | 1443 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Sunderland AFC | Premier League | LB | 33 | 2970 | 87% | 5 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 1534 | 1476 | 1.08 |
| 2014/15 | Sunderland AFC | Premier League | LB | 28 | 2306 | 67% | 0 | 5 | 0.20 | 0.22 | 1547 | 1432 | 1.06 |
| 2013/14 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | LB | 27 | 2355 | 77% | 4 | 3 | 0.27 | 0.17 | 1332 | 1411 | 0.59 |
| 2012/13 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | LB | 31 | 2781 | 91% | 1 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 1362 | 1436 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1362 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 1759 |
| 2023/24 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1639 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 380 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 137 | 0 | 0 | 1556 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Galatasaray | 8 | 701 | 0 | 1 | 1550 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Galatasaray | 4 | 315 | 1 | 0 | 1312 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Sunderland AFC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Sunderland AFC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Fa Cup | Sunderland AFC | 4 | 360 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 3 | 270 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Vitesse Arnhem | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1393 |
| 2012/13 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Vitesse Arnhem | 4 | 340 | 1 | 0 | 1440 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yevgen Selin Premier Liga · 2023 | 35 | €200k | €150k | fell |
| Vitaliy Vernydub Premier Liga · 2023 | 36 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Vladislav Ignatjev Premier Liga · 2022 | 35 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Alberto Botía Super League 1 · 2024 | 35 | €200k | €50k | fell |
| Rodolph Austin Superliga · 2019 | 34 | €250k | €100k | fell |
| Egor Filipenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 35 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Ugur Demirok Super Lig · 2022 | 34 | €150k | €25k | fell |
| Yevgen Novak Premier Liga · 2022 | 33 | €200k | €200k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Sparta R. | Without Club | Unknown | €250k |
| 12 Nov 2024 | Without Club | Sparta R. | Unknown | €1.2M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Galatasaray | Without Club | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | PSV | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Galatasaray | PSV | Free / loan | €3.2M |
| 28 Jul 2021 | Crystal Palace | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 30 Jan 2017 | Sunderland | Crystal Palace | €10.5M | €6.0M |
| 25 Jul 2014 | Chelsea | Sunderland | €1.9M | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2014 | Vitesse | Chelsea | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 17 Jan 2012 | Chelsea | Vitesse | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 6 Jan 2012 | Wigan | Chelsea | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 Aug 2011 | Chelsea | Wigan | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 May 2011 | Leicester | Chelsea | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 26 Jan 2011 | Chelsea | Leicester | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 28 Feb 2010 | Newcastle | Chelsea | Free / loan | €50k |
| 29 Jan 2010 | Chelsea | Newcastle | Free / loan | €50k |
| 31 Dec 2009 | Coventry | Chelsea | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 7 Aug 2009 | Chelsea | Coventry | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Chelsea U18 | Chelsea | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | PSV U17 | Chelsea U18 | €300k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Den Bosch Yth. | PSV U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.