Alejandro Marqués
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alejandro Marqués's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-2.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.79x the positional average in the league (1145 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 67
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 25.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1145 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.31
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.40
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1305
- Opponent strength
- 1310
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €665k – €1.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; relative output down 40% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -54% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1145 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | ST | 26 | 1145 | 37% | 4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.40 | 1310 | 1305 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | ST | 33 | 1681 | 55% | 11 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.69 | 1358 | 1302 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | ST | 31 | 1354 | 44% | 9 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.69 | 1381 | 1279 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | ST | 15 | 655 | 21% | 3 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.64 | 1360 | 1252 | 0.68 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Duarte Liga Portugal · 2021 | 25 | €1.5M | €1.3M | flat |
| Saido Berahino Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 28 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Vyacheslav Grulev Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €2.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Fábio Sturgeon Liga Portugal · 2018 | 24 | €1.0M | €475k | fell |
| Guus Hupperts Eredivisie · 2016 | 24 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Yohan Croizet Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 26 | €1.2M | €675k | fell |
| Alessio Da Cruz Eredivisie · 2021 | 24 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Junior Tallo Liga Portugal · 2018 | 26 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Estoril | Without Club | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 27 Jul 2023 | Juve Next Gen | Estoril | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Estoril | Juve Next Gen | Free / loan | €500k |
| 28 Jul 2022 | Juve Next Gen | Estoril | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | CD Mirandés | Juventus U23 | Free / loan | €800k |
| 27 Aug 2021 | Juventus U23 | CD Mirandés | Free / loan | €500k |
| 25 Jan 2020 | Barcelona B | Juventus U23 | €8.2M | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Barça U19 | Barcelona B | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Jabac U19 | Barça U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Jabac Yth. | Jabac U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Espanyol Youth | Jabac Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.