Emilio Simonsen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Emilio Simonsen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.18x the positional average in the league (901 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Around 18 months left: some discount usually possible.
Bargain Index: 99
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 1.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €135k vs market €300k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 901 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.40
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.47
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 1 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1183
- Opponent strength
- 1320
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €222k – €418k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -16% to +8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 901 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Fredericia | Superliga | AM | 13 | 901 | 46% | 1 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.47 | 1320 | 1183 | 0.47 |
| 2019/20 | Lyngby Boldklub | Superliga | AM | 6 | 156 | 7% | 1 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.57 | 1324 | 1176 | 0.41 |
| 2017/18 | Lyngby Boldklub | Superliga | AM | 3 | 93 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1236 | 1197 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | Lyngby Boldklub | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rezan Corlu Superliga · 2023 | 26 | €350k | €300k | flat |
| Fabry Castro Super League 1 · 2019 | 27 | €400k | €350k | flat |
| Bror Blume Superliga · 2018 | 26 | €350k | €475k | rose |
| Anas Ouahim Eredivisie · 2024 | 27 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Liam Donnelly Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 27 | €350k | €300k | flat |
| Sergiy Gorbunov Premier Liga · 2021 | 27 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Kostakis Artymatas Super League 1 · 2018 | 25 | €500k | €800k | rose |
| Jeffrey Rijsdijk Eredivisie · 2015 | 28 | €400k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Nyköbing FC | FC Fredericia | Unknown | €150k |
| 26 Aug 2022 | HB Köge | Nyköbing FC | Unknown | €150k |
| 26 Jan 2021 | Lyngby BK | HB Köge | Unknown | €200k |
| 31 Dec 2020 | Nyköbing FC | Lyngby BK | Free / loan | €200k |
| 21 Jan 2020 | Lyngby BK | Nyköbing FC | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Lyngby BK U19 | Lyngby BK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Lyngby BK Youth | Lyngby BK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.