Ennio van der Gouw
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ennio van der Gouw's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 89
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9.8th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €283k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 900 (29% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 10 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1254
- Opponent strength
- 1311
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €287k – €593k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -34% to +12%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 900 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 182 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–147%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 73%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | GK | 10 | 900 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1311 | 1254 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artem Kychak Premier Liga · 2015 | 26 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Kenny Steppe Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 27 | €500k | €650k | rose |
| Alessandro Damen Eredivisie · 2015 | 25 | €350k | €150k | fell |
| Guillaume Hubert Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 26 | €300k | €750k | rose |
| Ofir Marciano Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 27 | €350k | €375k | flat |
| Thiago Rodrigues Liga Portugal · 2022 | 26 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Gunnar Nielsen Superliga · 2013 | 27 | €250k | €200k | fell |
| Egor Shamov Premier Liga · 2020 | 26 | €475k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Zulte Waregem | Rio Ave | Unknown | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Rio Ave | Zulte Waregem | Free / loan | €400k |
| 2 Feb 2026 | Zulte Waregem | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €400k |
| 12 Jul 2023 | VVV-Venlo | Zulte Waregem | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FC Twente | VVV-Venlo | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | FC Twente U21 | FC Twente | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Twente U19 | FC Twente U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | FC Twente U17 | FC Twente U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | FC Twente Youth | FC Twente U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.