Daniel Elfadli
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Daniel Elfadli's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-3.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 12
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 42th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.2M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -49% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1253 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 42 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1380
- Opponent strength
- 1496
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €920k – €2.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -36% (IQR -63% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1253 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | CB | 21 | 1253 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1496 | 1380 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Hamburger SV | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koffi Djidji Serie A · 2022 | 30 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Mitchell Dijks Serie A · 2021 | 28 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Alan Hutton Laliga · 2013 | 29 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Luca Ceppitelli Serie A · 2017 | 28 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Marvin Friedrich Bundesliga · 2024 | 29 | €3.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Fali Laliga · 2023 | 30 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Abdelhamid El Kaoutari Ligue 1 · 2017 | 27 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
| Leon Balogun Bundesliga · 2018 | 30 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | 1.FC Magdeburg | Hamburg | €800k | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | VfR Aalen | 1.FC Magdeburg | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | FC Nöttingen | VfR Aalen | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | SSV Reutlingen | FC Nöttingen | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | SKV Rutesheim | SSV Reutlingen | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Rutesheim II | SKV Rutesheim | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Rutesheim U19 | Rutesheim II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Rutesheim U17 | Rutesheim U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Rutesheim Jgd. | Rutesheim U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Eltingen Youth | Rutesheim Jgd. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.