David Toshevski
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates David Toshevski's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.11x the positional average in the league (1266 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 97
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 8.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €287k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1266 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.57
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1207
- Opponent strength
- 1401
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €283k – €904k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -29% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1266 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FCV Dender EH | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 20 | 1266 | 47% | 4 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.57 | 1401 | 1207 | 0.65 |
| 2023/24 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | LW | 1 | 18 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1239 | 1317 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | ST | 2 | 28 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 1394 | 1343 | 0.53 |
| 2020/21 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | ST | 6 | 32 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 1446 | 1316 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Relegation Play Offs | FCV Dender EH | 5 | 225 | 0 | 0 | 1322 |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Rostov | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1439 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Henrique Liga Portugal · 2021 | 25 | €350k | €650k | rose |
| Yago Cariello Liga Portugal · 2023 | 24 | €500k | €550k | flat |
| Roberts Uldrikis Eredivisie · 2022 | 24 | €1.0M | €550k | fell |
| Berto Liga Portugal · 2020 | 24 | €650k | €500k | fell |
| Elías Már Ómarsson Eredivisie · 2019 | 24 | €750k | €750k | flat |
| Deni Júnior Liga Portugal · 2020 | 25 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| Giannis Karalis Super League 1 · 2013 | 25 | €400k | €350k | flat |
| Loris Brogno Eredivisie · 2018 | 26 | €600k | €325k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 2025 | Without Club | FCV Dender EH | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2025 | A. Klagenfurt | Without Club | Unknown | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | HNK Sibenik | A. Klagenfurt | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Feb 2024 | A. Klagenfurt | HNK Sibenik | Free / loan | €200k |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Without Club | A. Klagenfurt | Unknown | €200k |
| 7 Sept 2023 | Rostov | Without Club | Unknown | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Michalovce | Rostov | Free / loan | €300k |
| 19 Feb 2022 | Rostov | Michalovce | Free / loan | €400k |
| 18 Feb 2022 | Górnik Zabrze | Rostov | Free / loan | €400k |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Rostov | Górnik Zabrze | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Tambov | Rostov | Free / loan | €500k |
| 23 Feb 2021 | Rostov | Tambov | Free / loan | €700k |
| 27 Jul 2020 | Rabotnicki | Rostov | €1.0M | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Rabotnicki Yth. | Rabotnicki | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.