
Ryan McGowan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ryan McGowan's performance-implied value at EUR 0.0M-0.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 2.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 36.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €18k vs market €25k |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +46% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1680 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 981
- Opponent strength
- 1231
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €22k – €107k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -53% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Age 37: resale value typically declines.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1680 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Livingston FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 21 | 1680 | 57% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 1231 | 981 | 0.31 |
| 2023/24 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 24 | 2009 | 68% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1249 | 1105 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 25 | 2160 | 73% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1308 | 1138 | 0.40 |
| 2018/19 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 10 | 900 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1321 | 1078 | 0.44 |
| 2015/16 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 22 | 1980 | 58% | 0 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 1284 | 1189 | 0.44 |
| 2014/15 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 12 | 1043 | 30% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1338 | 1257 | 0.41 |
| 2012/13 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 20 | 1800 | 53% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1323 | 1283 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Livingston FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Johnstone FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Bradford City | 2 | 155 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee United FC | 3 | 269 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Heart of Midlothian FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1559 |
| 2012/13 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Considine Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 37 | €50k | €50k | flat |
| Ibrahim Öztürk Super Lig · 2022 | 41 | €50k | €25k | fell |
| Michael Nottingham Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 35 | €50k | €50k | flat |
| Erdem Özgenç Super Lig · 2024 | 40 | €50k | €50k | flat |
| Ervin Zukanovic Super League 1 · 2023 | 36 | €150k | €125k | flat |
| Liam Fontaine Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 36 | €125k | €125k | flat |
| Gökhan Gönül Super Lig · 2022 | 37 | €125k | €50k | fell |
| Mustafa Yumlu Super Lig · 2021 | 34 | €200k | €50k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2024 | St. Johnstone | Livingston FC | Free / loan | €200k |
| 22 Jul 2022 | Kuwait SC | St. Johnstone | Free / loan | €400k |
| 5 Jul 2021 | Sydney FC | Kuwait SC | Unknown | €400k |
| 2 Jul 2019 | Bradford | Sydney FC | Free / loan | €400k |
| 19 May 2019 | Dundee FC | Bradford | Free / loan | €400k |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Bradford | Dundee FC | Free / loan | €400k |
| 26 Jan 2018 | Sharjah FC | Bradford | Free / loan | €400k |
| 21 Aug 2017 | GZ Hengfeng | Sharjah FC | Free / loan | €400k |
| 23 Feb 2017 | HN Jianye | GZ H. Zhicheng | Free / loan | €450k |
| 19 Feb 2016 | Dundee United | HN Jianye | €390k | €500k |
| 23 Jan 2015 | SD Luneng | Dundee United | Free / loan | €800k |
| 18 Jan 2013 | Heart of Midl. | SD Luneng | €500k | €500k |
| 1 Mar 2011 | Partick Thistle | Heart of Midl. | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Feb 2011 | Heart of Midl. | Partick Thistle | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 May 2010 | Ayr United | Heart of Midl. | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Oct 2009 | Heart of Midl. | Ayr United | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Hearts FC U20 | Heart of Midl. | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2006 | SASI | Hearts FC U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2004 | Para Hills | SASI | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.