Ryan McGowan

37 yrs · Centre-back (also RB) · Australia
Livingston FC · Scottish Premiership · Foot: right · Height: 191 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 31 May 2027
Market value
€25k
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€14k – €43k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€45k – €164k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€22k – €107k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€1k – €150k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€14k – €43k
Model value (performance-implied)€45k – €164k
Projected value (24 months)€22k – €107k
Dashed line: current market value (€25k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Ryan McGowan's performance-implied value at EUR 0.0M-0.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)

PerformanceBelow average2.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable36.9 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €18k vs market €25k
Expected appreciationVery high+46% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.31
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €900k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1680 (57% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.05
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.10
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
2 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.31 (rank 26)
Team strength (Elo)
981
Opponent strength
1231
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€22k – €107k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -53% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ▲Age 37: resale value typically declines.
  • ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1680 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
16 (DEF)
Relative output kept
90%–275%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
75%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Livingston FCScottish PremiershipCB21168057%010.050.1012319810.31
2023/24St. Johnstone FCScottish PremiershipCB24200968%100.040.07124911050.34
2022/23St. Johnstone FCScottish PremiershipCB25216073%020.080.09130811380.40
2018/19Dundee FCScottish PremiershipCB1090030%000.000.05132110780.44
2015/16Dundee United FCScottish PremiershipRB22198058%030.140.12128411890.44
2014/15Dundee United FCScottish PremiershipRB12104330%100.090.10133812570.41
2012/13Heart of Midlothian FCScottish PremiershipCB20180053%020.100.08132312830.52

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Scottish Fa CupLivingston FC112000—
2023/24Scottish Fa CupSt. Johnstone FC19000—
2018/19Fa CupBradford City215500—
2014/15Scottish Fa CupDundee United FC326900—
2012/13Uefa Europa League QualifyingHeart of Midlothian FC2180001559
2012/13Scottish Fa CupHeart of Midlothian FC19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Andy Considine
Scottish Premiership · 2024
37€50k€50kflat
Ibrahim Öztürk
Super Lig · 2022
41€50k€25kfell
Michael Nottingham
Scottish Premiership · 2024
35€50k€50kflat
Erdem Özgenç
Super Lig · 2024
40€50k€50kflat
Ervin Zukanovic
Super League 1 · 2023
36€150k€125kflat
Liam Fontaine
Scottish Premiership · 2022
36€125k€125kflat
Gökhan Gönül
Super Lig · 2022
37€125k€50kfell
Mustafa Yumlu
Super Lig · 2021
34€200k€50kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
5 Jul 2024St. JohnstoneLivingston FCFree / loan€200k
22 Jul 2022Kuwait SCSt. JohnstoneFree / loan€400k
5 Jul 2021Sydney FCKuwait SCUnknown€400k
2 Jul 2019BradfordSydney FCFree / loan€400k
19 May 2019Dundee FCBradfordFree / loan€400k
31 Jan 2019BradfordDundee FCFree / loan€400k
26 Jan 2018Sharjah FCBradfordFree / loan€400k
21 Aug 2017GZ HengfengSharjah FCFree / loan€400k
23 Feb 2017HN JianyeGZ H. ZhichengFree / loan€450k
19 Feb 2016Dundee UnitedHN Jianye€390k€500k
23 Jan 2015SD LunengDundee UnitedFree / loan€800k
18 Jan 2013Heart of Midl.SD Luneng€500k€500k
1 Mar 2011Partick ThistleHeart of Midl.Free / loan€200k
1 Feb 2011Heart of Midl.Partick ThistleFree / loan€250k
1 May 2010Ayr UnitedHeart of Midl.Free / loan€250k
1 Oct 2009Heart of Midl.Ayr UnitedFree / loan€100k
1 Jul 2008Hearts FC U20Heart of Midl.Unknown€50k
1 Jul 2006SASIHearts FC U20UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2004Para HillsSASIUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Ryan McGowan · MoneyballAI