Malthe Højholt
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Malthe Højholt's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.82x the positional average in the league (850 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 31.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €596k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 850 (25% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 31 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1260
- Opponent strength
- 1514
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €654k – €1.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -72% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 850 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Pisa Sporting Club | Serie A | DM | 17 | 850 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1514 | 1260 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Aalborg BK | Superliga | DM | 3 | 246 | 12% | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.23 | 1373 | 1148 | 0.38 |
| 2022/23 | Aalborg BK | Superliga | DM | 17 | 1067 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1305 | 1216 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | Aalborg BK | Superliga | DM | 21 | 1596 | 81% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1263 | 1318 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | Aalborg BK | Superliga | DM | 9 | 527 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1265 | 1241 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Pisa Sporting Club | 2 | 97 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Pisa Sporting Club | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Aalborg BK | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | Aalborg BK | 3 | 195 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | Aalborg BK | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | Aalborg BK | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronaldo Vieira Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €2.0M | €400k | fell |
| Luca Fiordilino Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Chris Philipps Ligue 1 · 2018 | 24 | €1.3M | €400k | fell |
| Agustín Martegani Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €1.8M | €275k | fell |
| Luca Zanimacchia Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €1.8M | €1.8M | flat |
| Emil Bohinen Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €1.8M | €1.3M | fell |
| Eduardo Henrique Serie A · 2021 | 26 | €1.7M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ismael Diomande Ligue 1 · 2017 | 25 | €1.0M | €1.3M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2024 | Aalborg BK | Pisa | €500k | €1.0M |
| 7 Jan 2020 | Aalborg BK U19 | Aalborg BK | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Aalborg BK Yth. | Aalborg BK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.