Martim Neto
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Martim Neto's performance-implied value at EUR 2.4M-8.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-6.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-7.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 2.29x the positional average in the league (1351 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 62
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 55.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.0M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1351 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.47
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.50
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1389
- Opponent strength
- 1500
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €7.9M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+119 Elo); league level up (+168 Elo); relative output up 126% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -50% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1351 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Elche CF | Laliga | CM | 25 | 1351 | 40% | 2 | 5 | 0.47 | 0.50 | 1500 | 1389 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | CM | 24 | 1376 | 45% | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.22 | 1324 | 1270 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | CM | 29 | 1873 | 61% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 1373 | 1276 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Elche CF | 4 | 178 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezequiel Schelotto Serie A · 2014 | 25 | €5.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Federico Viviani Serie A · 2017 | 25 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
| Tommaso Pobega Serie A · 2021 | 22 | €6.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Toma Bašić Ligue 1 · 2020 | 24 | €4.8M | €8.0M | rose |
| Erik Thommy Bundesliga · 2018 | 24 | €5.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Jimmy Cabot Ligue 1 · 2017 | 23 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Patrick Erras Bundesliga · 2019 | 24 | €3.0M | €700k | fell |
| Luca Marrone Serie A · 2016 | 26 | €2.2M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2025 | Benfica | Elche CF | €1.5M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Rio Ave | Benfica | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 2 Sept 2024 | Benfica | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Benfica B | Benfica | Unknown | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Gil Vicente | Benfica B | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Aug 2023 | Benfica B | Gil Vicente | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Benfica U23 | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Benfica U19 | Benfica U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.