Yassin Oukili
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yassin Oukili's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.08x the positional average in the league (930 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 92
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 19.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €404k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 930 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 20 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1200
- Opponent strength
- 1300
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €415k – €1.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 42 pts; changed club; relative output down 43% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -28% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 930 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | CM | 13 | 468 | 15% | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.29 | 1300 | 1175 | 0.43 |
| 2025/26 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | CM | 8 | 462 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1327 | 1225 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | CM | 32 | 2212 | 72% | 6 | 3 | 0.37 | 0.40 | 1327 | 1171 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | CM | 32 | 2794 | 91% | 5 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.24 | 1369 | 1193 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | CM | 31 | 1848 | 60% | 3 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 1363 | 1258 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | CM | 21 | 898 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1356 | 1260 | 0.60 |
| 2019/20 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | DM | 3 | 70 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1247 | 1393 | 0.62 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | RKC Waalwijk | 3 | 154 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | RKC Waalwijk | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | RKC Waalwijk | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | RKC Waalwijk | 4 | 312 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nwankwo Obiora Liga Portugal · 2016 | 25 | €1.0M | €350k | fell |
| Danny Bejarano Super League 1 · 2019 | 25 | €450k | €400k | flat |
| Oleksandr Noyok Premier Liga · 2016 | 24 | €800k | €1.2M | rose |
| Rafael Sabino Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Paul Cairney Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 27 | €450k | €350k | fell |
| Daniel Pedersen Superliga · 2017 | 25 | €350k | €400k | flat |
| Tengarrinha Liga Portugal · 2016 | 27 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Volodymyr Tanchyk Premier Liga · 2017 | 26 | €400k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2026 | Casa Pia | Fortuna Sittard | Unknown | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2025 | RKC Waalwijk | Casa Pia | Free / loan | €900k |
| 20 Jan 2021 | Vitesse U21 | RKC Waalwijk | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Vitesse U19 | Vitesse U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Vitesse U17 | Vitesse U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Vitesse Youth | Vitesse U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Alphense B. Jgd | Vitesse Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | PVCV Jgd | Alphense B. Jgd | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.