
Julius Dirksen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Julius Dirksen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 60
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €796k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1163 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 6 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1245
- Opponent strength
- 1320
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €505k – €1.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -43% to +19%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1163 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | CB | 18 | 1163 | 38% | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 1320 | 1245 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | CB | 6 | 68 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1356 | 1297 | 0.50 |
| 2022/23 | FC Emmen | Eredivisie | LB | 27 | 1404 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1345 | 1199 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Go Ahead Eagles | 4 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1535 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Go Ahead Eagles | 2 | 40 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Go Ahead Eagles | 2 | 60 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | FC Emmen | 3 | 269 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Frese Superliga · 2021 | 23 | €450k | €1.0M | rose |
| Loïc Bessilé Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Miguel Rodrigues Super League 1 · 2017 | 24 | €600k | €350k | fell |
| Vitaliy Pryndeta Super League 1 · 2017 | 24 | €350k | €250k | fell |
| Artem Sokol Premier Liga · 2021 | 24 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Rami Gershon Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 26 | €900k | €1.8M | rose |
| Samuel Inkoom Super League 1 · 2014 | 25 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Jack MacKenzie Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 22 | €400k | €400k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | FC Emmen | Go Ahead Eagles | Unknown | €550k |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Ajax U21 | FC Emmen | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Ajax U18 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Ajax U17 | Ajax U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | PEC Youth | Ajax Youth | €50k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | FC Twente Youth | PEC Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Hoevelaken Yth. | FC Twente Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.