Julius Dirksen

23 yrs · Centre-back (also LB) · Netherlands
Go Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie · Foot: left · Height: 185 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€800k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€404k – €1.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€346k – €581k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€505k – €1.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.1M – €178k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€404k – €1.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€346k – €581k
Projected value (24 months)€505k – €1.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Julius Dirksen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 60

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeFavorable23.4 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €796k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationNeutral+9% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €800k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1163 (38% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.15
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.13
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
6 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1245
Opponent strength
1320
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€505k – €1.7M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -43% to +19%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1163 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
82 (DEF)
Relative output kept
65%–166%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Go Ahead EaglesEredivisieCB18116338%200.150.13132012450.43
2024/25Go Ahead EaglesEredivisieCB6682%000.000.08135612970.50
2022/23FC EmmenEredivisieLB27140446%000.000.06134511990.58

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueGo Ahead Eagles465001535
2025/26Knvb BekerGo Ahead Eagles24000—
2024/25Knvb BekerGo Ahead Eagles26000—
2022/23Knvb BekerFC Emmen326900—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Martin Frese
Superliga · 2021
23€450k€1.0Mrose
Loïc Bessilé
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
23€800k€400kfell
Miguel Rodrigues
Super League 1 · 2017
24€600k€350kfell
Vitaliy Pryndeta
Super League 1 · 2017
24€350k€250kfell
Artem Sokol
Premier Liga · 2021
24€500k€450kflat
Rami Gershon
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
26€900k€1.8Mrose
Samuel Inkoom
Super League 1 · 2014
25€1.5M€800kfell
Jack MacKenzie
Scottish Premiership · 2022
22€400k€400kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2024FC EmmenGo Ahead EaglesUnknown€550k
31 Jan 2022Ajax U21FC EmmenUnknown€50k
1 Jul 2021Ajax U18Ajax U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2020Ajax U17Ajax U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2019Ajax YouthAjax U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018PEC YouthAjax Youth€50kData unavailable
1 Jul 2014FC Twente YouthPEC YouthFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Hoevelaken Yth.FC Twente YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.