Cheikh Sabaly
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Cheikh Sabaly's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (971 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 46
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 34.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 971 (32% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 35 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1225
- Opponent strength
- 1472
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -26% (IQR -43% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 971 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | LW | 14 | 971 | 32% | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.43 | 1472 | 1225 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | LW | 29 | 1385 | 45% | 3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.46 | 1493 | 1284 | 0.87 |
| 2020/21 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | LW | 1 | 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 1425 | 1341 | 0.75 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco D'Alessandro Serie A · 2018 | 27 | €2.5M | €1.6M | fell |
| Aboubakar Kamara Ligue 1 · 2021 | 26 | €2.0M | €3.0M | rose |
| Luton Shelton Premier Liga · 2014 | 29 | €1.9M | €1.4M | fell |
| Yaya Sanogo Ligue 1 · 2020 | 27 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Opa Nguette Ligue 1 · 2022 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Luca Siligardi Serie A · 2014 | 26 | €2.5M | €2.8M | flat |
| Sada Thioub Ligue 1 · 2023 | 28 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Keita Baldé Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | FC Metz | Vancouver | €1.0M | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Quevilly Rouen | FC Metz | Free / loan | €900k |
| 24 Jan 2022 | FC Metz | Quevilly Rouen | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Pau FC | FC Metz | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Sept 2020 | FC Metz | Pau FC | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Pau FC | FC Metz | Free / loan | €150k |
| 19 Jul 2019 | FC Metz | Pau FC | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Génération Foot | FC Metz | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.