Luka Kulenovic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luka Kulenovic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.06x the positional average in the league (1625 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 80
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €434k vs market €650k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1625 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.44
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.54
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1060
- Opponent strength
- 1285
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €345k – €943k
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-147 Elo); relative output down 37% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -43% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1625 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | ST | 29 | 1625 | 53% | 5 | 3 | 0.44 | 0.54 | 1285 | 1060 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | ST | 24 | 1455 | 48% | 9 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.88 | 1315 | 1207 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 3 | 300 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 3 | 267 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mendy Mamadou Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Vasilios Koutsianikoulis Super League 1 · 2015 | 27 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Panagiotis Moraitis Super League 1 · 2024 | 27 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Bachana Arabuli Super League 1 · 2022 | 28 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Darren Maatsen Eredivisie · 2017 | 26 | €400k | €275k | fell |
| Frederico Duarte Super League 1 · 2024 | 25 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Hadi Sacko Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €775k | €125k | fell |
| Rostyslav Taranukha Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €300k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2024 | Slovan Liberec | Heracles Almelo | €900k | €650k |
| 9 Jul 2023 | Sloga Meridian | Slovan Liberec | Free / loan | €150k |
| 8 Jul 2022 | Rudar Prijedor | Sloga Meridian | Free / loan | €50k |
| 4 Aug 2020 | NK Kustosija | Rudar Prijedor | Free / loan | €150k |
| 14 Feb 2020 | NK Osijek II | NK Kustosija | Unknown | €150k |
| 19 Aug 2019 | Zeljeznicar BL | NK Osijek II | Free / loan | €150k |
| 8 Aug 2018 | Trencin U19 | Zeljeznicar BL | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jan 2018 | FK Krupa U19 | Trencin U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 11 Aug 2016 | Banja Luka U17 | FK Krupa U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.