César Azpilicueta

37 yrs · Centre-back (also LB, RB) · Spain
Sevilla FC · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 178 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€1.0M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€288k – €1.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€421k – €1.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€496k – €1.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€992k – €982k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€288k – €1.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€421k – €1.3M
Projected value (24 months)€496k – €1.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates César Azpilicueta's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh82.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable36.8 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €727k vs market €1.0M
Expected appreciationNeutral+7% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €40.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1218 (36% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.07
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.10
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
83 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1397
Opponent strength
1509
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€496k – €1.1M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-258 Elo); role change LB -> CB; relative output up 103% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -61% (IQR -76% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 37: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1218 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Sevilla FCLaligaCB17121836%010.070.10150913970.95
2024/25Atlético de MadridLaligaLB1487726%100.100.10147016550.95
2023/24Atlético de MadridLaligaCB25142242%020.130.08146716671.00
2022/23Chelsea FCPremier LeagueRB25152245%000.000.04158315791.23
2021/22Chelsea FCPremier LeagueCB27207461%120.130.07158317371.17
2020/21Chelsea FCPremier LeagueCB26219164%120.120.08156517351.19
2019/20Chelsea FCPremier LeagueRB36323094%260.220.17156816531.14
2018/19Chelsea FCPremier LeagueRB383403100%160.190.13153717501.22
2017/18Chelsea FCPremier LeagueCB37333097%260.220.12153616671.15
2016/17Chelsea FCPremier LeagueCB383420100%150.160.08153217561.07
2015/16Chelsea FCPremier LeagueLB37320294%240.170.11153816251.08
2014/15Chelsea FCPremier LeagueLB29248473%030.110.07155717541.06
2013/14Chelsea FCPremier LeagueLB29232568%010.040.05153117471.12
2012/13Chelsea FCPremier LeagueCB27219764%060.250.16151916941.07
2012/13Olympique MarseilleLigue 1CB21805%000.000.05141615320.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid420900—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid2112001599
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid6288001699
2023/24Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid210100—
2023/24SupercopaAtlético de Madrid115001810
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueChelsea FC5260001638
2022/23Fa CupChelsea FC12700—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueChelsea FC9679111608
2021/22Fa CupChelsea FC430610—
2021/22Uefa Super CupChelsea FC138001689
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueChelsea FC11965001674
2020/21Fa CupChelsea FC428301—
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueChelsea FC7613201668
2019/20Fa CupChelsea FC535001—
2019/20Uefa Super CupChelsea FC1120001915
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueChelsea FC9695001577
2018/19Fa CupChelsea FC318701—
2018/19Community ShieldChelsea FC190001831
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueChelsea FC8705101728
2017/18Fa CupChelsea FC442001—
2017/18Community ShieldChelsea FC190001681
2016/17Fa CupChelsea FC637800—
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueChelsea FC8720001632
2015/16Fa CupChelsea FC327001—
2015/16Community ShieldChelsea FC169001729
2014/15Uefa Champions LeagueChelsea FC4390001633
2014/15Fa CupChelsea FC218001—
2013/14Uefa Champions LeagueChelsea FC10821031700
2013/14Fa CupChelsea FC218000—
2012/13Uefa Europa LeagueChelsea FC8720001538

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Guglielmo Stendardo
Serie A · 2016
35€500k€100kfell
Anthony Réveillère
Premier League · 2015
36€500k€500kflat
Víctor Díaz
Laliga · 2022
34€700k€400kfell
Federico Fazio
Serie A · 2023
36€400k€400kflat
Walter Samuel
Serie A · 2013
35€1.5M€400kfell
Mexer
Ligue 1 · 2022
34€1.0M€200kfell
Facundo Roncaglia
Laliga · 2021
34€1.0M€250kfell
Leonardo Bonucci
Bundesliga · 2024
37€1.0M€1.0Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026Sevilla FCRetiredUnknown€1.0M
29 Aug 2025AtléticoSevilla FCFree / loan€1.5M
6 Jul 2023ChelseaAtléticoFree / loan€5.0M
24 Aug 2012MarseilleChelsea€8.8M€7.5M
1 Jul 2010CA OsasunaMarseille€6.0M€7.0M
1 Jul 2007Osasuna BCA OsasunaUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2006CA Osasuna YoutOsasuna BUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.