Joe Mendes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Joe Mendes's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-3.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 53
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 17.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1215 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 18 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1310
- Opponent strength
- 1252
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €3.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -74% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1215 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | RB | 27 | 1215 | 40% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1252 | 1310 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | RB | 4 | 183 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1223 | 1478 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | RB | 17 | 892 | 29% | 0 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 1297 | 1499 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | LB | 4 | 185 | 6% | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.14 | 1320 | 1557 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Samsunspor | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1401 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1476 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | SC Braga | 5 | 205 | 0 | 0 | 1662 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SC Braga | 2 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1309 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1527 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Allmänna Idrottsklubben | 6 | 438 | 1 | 1 | 1308 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denys Popov Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Serkan Asan Super Lig · 2021 | 22 | €3.0M | €500k | fell |
| Dexter Lembikisa Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 21 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| Cemali Sertel Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €1.2M | €600k | fell |
| Moussa Sissako Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 22 | €1.2M | €400k | fell |
| Wilfried Kanon Eredivisie · 2015 | 22 | €1.3M | €1.3M | flat |
| Corentin Fiore Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 21 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Trent Sainsbury Eredivisie · 2015 | 23 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2025 | Braga | Samsunspor | €1.2M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Basel | Braga | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 2 Sept 2024 | Braga | Basel | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 28 Jan 2023 | AIK | Braga | €1.5M | €1.2M |
| 8 Jan 2022 | Hammarby | AIK | Unknown | €50k |
| 30 Nov 2021 | Hammarby TFF | Hammarby | Free / loan | €50k |
| 20 Jul 2021 | Hammarby | Hammarby TFF | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 19 Jul 2021 | Hammarby TFF | Hammarby | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 15 Jan 2021 | AIK U19 | Hammarby TFF | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | AIK U17 | AIK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.