Joelson Fernandes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Joelson Fernandes's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.04x the positional average in the league (1013 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 74
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 24.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €811k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1013 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.42
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 24 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1303
- Opponent strength
- 1320
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €608k – €2.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 37 pts; changed club; team strength up (+195 Elo); league level up (+94 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -52% to +18%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1013 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | LW | 24 | 1013 | 33% | 1 | 3 | 0.36 | 0.42 | 1320 | 1303 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Hatayspor | Super Lig | LW | 34 | 2267 | 70% | 3 | 4 | 0.28 | 0.44 | 1279 | 1107 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Hatayspor | Super Lig | LW | 31 | 1399 | 41% | 0 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.41 | 1307 | 1163 | 0.45 |
| 2019/20 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LW | 4 | 64 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 1365 | 1492 | 0.59 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Rharsalla Premier Liga · 2017 | 24 | €600k | €1.0M | rose |
| Andrés Ponce Premier Liga · 2020 | 24 | €1.1M | €350k | fell |
| Silvester van der Water Eredivisie · 2021 | 25 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Delano Burgzorg Eredivisie · 2022 | 24 | €2.0M | €1.8M | flat |
| Elson Hooi Eredivisie · 2014 | 23 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Nigel Thomas Superliga · 2024 | 23 | €700k | €300k | fell |
| Patrick Joosten Eredivisie · 2020 | 24 | €725k | €800k | flat |
| Renaud Emond Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 25 | €1.5M | €2.2M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2025 | Hatayspor | Gil Vicente | €750k | €1.4M |
| 11 Jul 2023 | Sporting B | Hatayspor | €375k | €1.5M |
| 2 Sept 2022 | Basel | Sporting B | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Sporting B | Basel | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Sporting CP U23 | Sporting B | Unknown | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sporting U17 | Sporting CP U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sporting Sub-15 | Sporting U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Sporting Yth. | Sporting Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.