Burak Bozan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Burak Bozan's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 85
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 7.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €393k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1234 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1167
- Opponent strength
- 1289
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €340k – €869k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -45% to +69%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1234 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 138 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–145%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 59%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | GK | 14 | 1234 | 40% | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 1289 | 1167 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | GK | 18 | 1491 | 46% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 1302 | 1198 | 0.39 |
| 2021/22 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | GK | 4 | 279 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1223 | 1238 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1314 | 1252 | 0.37 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Brunst Superliga · 2021 | 26 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Kenan Piric Super League 1 · 2022 | 28 | €475k | €800k | rose |
| Ricardo Friedrich Super Lig · 2020 | 27 | €400k | €700k | rose |
| Konstantinos Peristeridis Super League 1 · 2017 | 26 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Kyle Letheren Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 28 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Scott Fox Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 27 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Bojan Saranov Super League 1 · 2015 | 28 | €350k | €600k | rose |
| Igor Berezovskyi Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 24 | €700k | €350k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2023 | Tuzlaspor | Gaziantep FK | Free / loan | €125k |
| 17 Feb 2023 | Gaziantep FK | Tuzlaspor | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | G.Antep FK U21 | Gazisehir | Unknown | €25k |
| 3 Mar 2018 | G.Antep FK U19 | G.Antep FK U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | G.Antep FK Yth | G.Antep FK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.