
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-4.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.98x the positional average in the league (2047 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 87.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 37 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -46% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2047 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.70
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.50
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1504
- Opponent strength
- 1452
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €836k – €2.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -66% (IQR -74% to -50%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 37: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | ST | 30 | 2047 | 67% | 10 | 6 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 1452 | 1504 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | ST | 34 | 2628 | 86% | 17 | 8 | 0.86 | 0.63 | 1459 | 1534 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | ST | 15 | 551 | 16% | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.34 | 1615 | 1579 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | ST | 1 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 1389 | 1696 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | ST | 17 | 1092 | 32% | 11 | 1 | 0.99 | 0.55 | 1534 | 1686 | 1.05 |
| 2021/22 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | ST | 14 | 1040 | 30% | 4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.40 | 1557 | 1667 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | LW | 29 | 2337 | 68% | 10 | 3 | 0.50 | 0.39 | 1557 | 1688 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | LW | 36 | 3139 | 92% | 22 | 3 | 0.72 | 0.49 | 1571 | 1641 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | ST | 36 | 2732 | 80% | 22 | 5 | 0.89 | 0.56 | 1546 | 1733 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | ST | 16 | 1417 | 46% | 13 | 3 | 1.02 | 0.58 | 1501 | 1592 | 1.04 |
| 2017/18 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | ST | 13 | 1059 | 31% | 10 | 4 | 1.19 | 0.72 | 1546 | 1665 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | ST | 32 | 2783 | 91% | 31 | 2 | 1.07 | 0.60 | 1525 | 1705 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | ST | 31 | 2473 | 81% | 25 | 6 | 1.13 | 0.68 | 1520 | 1718 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | ST | 33 | 2721 | 89% | 16 | 7 | 0.76 | 0.49 | 1522 | 1622 | 1.03 |
| 2013/14 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | RW | 32 | 1955 | 64% | 13 | 4 | 0.78 | 0.37 | 1531 | 1751 | 1.03 |
| 2012/13 | AS Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 | ST | 37 | 3214 | 94% | 19 | 12 | 0.87 | 0.70 | 1451 | 1572 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 8 | 590 | 3 | 4 | 1625 |
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Gabon | 2 | 147 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Trophee Des Champions | Olympique Marseille | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1832 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 13 | 1031 | 10 | 3 | 1591 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Olympique Marseille | 2 | 166 | 2 | 0 | 1436 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 6 | 410 | 2 | 1 | 1660 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | FC Barcelona | 6 | 422 | 2 | 0 | 1546 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 8 | 471 | 3 | 1 | 1577 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Community Shield | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1842 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 6 | 406 | 3 | 0 | 1587 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 2 | 180 | 4 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 12 | 934 | 8 | 2 | 1600 |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 540 | 4 | 0 | 1704 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 90 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1855 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 708 | 7 | 1 | 1696 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 390 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2016/17 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1853 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Dortmund | 10 | 772 | 8 | 2 | 1563 |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 390 | 3 | 3 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 296 | 3 | 1 | 1439 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 616 | 3 | 2 | 1646 |
| 2014/15 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 413 | 5 | 1 | — |
| 2014/15 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 63 | 1 | 1 | 1854 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 384 | 1 | 0 | 1675 |
| 2013/14 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 296 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1903 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miroslav Klose Serie A · 2013 | 35 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Álvaro Negredo Laliga · 2022 | 37 | €1.5M | €300k | fell |
| Fabio Quagliarella Serie A · 2021 | 38 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Jimmy Briand Ligue 1 · 2020 | 35 | €1.6M | €600k | fell |
| Gökdeniz Karadeniz Premier Liga · 2015 | 35 | €1.0M | €100k | fell |
| Kévin Gameiro Ligue 1 · 2023 | 36 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Olivier Giroud Serie A · 2024 | 38 | €3.0M | €900k | fell |
| Burak Yilmaz Ligue 1 · 2021 | 36 | €2.8M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2025 | Al-Qadsiah | Marseille | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 18 Jul 2024 | Marseille | Al-Qadsiah | €9.0M | €5.0M |
| 21 Jul 2023 | Chelsea | Marseille | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Barcelona | Chelsea | €12.0M | €15.0M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Arsenal | Barcelona | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 31 Jan 2018 | Dortmund | Arsenal | €63.8M | €65.0M |
| 4 Jul 2013 | Saint-Étienne | Dortmund | €13.0M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jan 2012 | AC Milan | Saint-Étienne | €1.8M | €4.0M |
| 31 Dec 2011 | Saint-Étienne | AC Milan | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 31 Jan 2011 | AC Milan | Saint-Étienne | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jan 2011 | Monaco | AC Milan | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 6 Jul 2010 | AC Milan | Monaco | Free / loan | €1.7M |
| 30 Jun 2010 | Lille | AC Milan | Free / loan | €1.7M |
| 1 Jul 2009 | AC Milan | Lille | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2009 | Dijon | AC Milan | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 2 Jul 2008 | AC Milan | Dijon | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Milan U19 | AC Milan | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2007 | SC Bastia U19 | Milan U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | FC Rouen U17 | SC Bastia U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2004 | FC Rouen Jugend | FC Rouen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2001 | St. Laval Yth. | FC Rouen Jugend | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.