Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

37 yrs · Striker (also LW, RW) · Gabon
Olympique Marseille · Ligue 1 · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€2.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€807k – €2.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€889k – €4.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€836k – €2.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.6M – €3.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€807k – €2.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€889k – €4.2M
Projected value (24 months)€836k – €2.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-4.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.98x the positional average in the league (2047 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh87.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable37 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.1M vs market €2.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-46% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.88
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €75.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2047 (67% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.70
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.50
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
88 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.88 (rank 5)
Team strength (Elo)
1504
Opponent strength
1452
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€836k – €2.4M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -66% (IQR -74% to -50%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 37: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Olympique MarseilleLigue 1ST30204767%1060.700.50145215040.88
2023/24Olympique MarseilleLigue 1ST34262886%1780.860.63145915340.87
2022/23Chelsea FCPremier LeagueST1555116%100.160.34161515791.23
2022/23FC BarcelonaLaligaST180%000.000.31138916960.98
2021/22FC BarcelonaLaligaST17109232%1110.990.55153416861.05
2021/22Arsenal FCPremier LeagueST14104030%410.430.40155716671.17
2020/21Arsenal FCPremier LeagueLW29233768%1030.500.39155716881.19
2019/20Arsenal FCPremier LeagueLW36313992%2230.720.49157116411.14
2018/19Arsenal FCPremier LeagueST36273280%2250.890.56154617331.22
2017/18Borussia DortmundBundesligaST16141746%1331.020.58150115921.04
2017/18Arsenal FCPremier LeagueST13105931%1041.190.72154616651.15
2016/17Borussia DortmundBundesligaST32278391%3121.070.60152517051.06
2015/16Borussia DortmundBundesligaST31247381%2561.130.68152017181.02
2014/15Borussia DortmundBundesligaST33272189%1670.760.49152216221.03
2013/14Borussia DortmundBundesligaRW32195564%1340.780.37153117511.03
2012/13AS Saint-ÉtienneLigue 1ST37321494%19120.870.70145115720.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueOlympique Marseille8590341625
2025/26Africa Cup Of NationsGabon214710—
2025/26Trophee Des ChampionsOlympique Marseille123001832
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueOlympique Marseille1310311031591
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingOlympique Marseille2166201436
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueChelsea FC6410211660
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueFC Barcelona6422201546
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueArsenal FC8471311577
2020/21Fa CupArsenal FC112010—
2020/21Community ShieldArsenal FC190101842
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueArsenal FC6406301587
2019/20Fa CupArsenal FC218040—
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueArsenal FC12934821600
2018/19Fa CupArsenal FC19010—
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund6540401704
2017/18Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund19030—
2017/18Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBorussia Dortmund190101855
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund9708711696
2016/17Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund439022—
2016/17Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBorussia Dortmund178001853
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueBorussia Dortmund10772821563
2015/16Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund439033—
2015/16Uefa Europa League QualifyingBorussia Dortmund4296311439
2014/15Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund8616321646
2014/15Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund441351—
2014/15Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBorussia Dortmund163111854
2013/14Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund9384101675
2013/14Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund629620—
2013/14Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBorussia Dortmund118011903

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Miroslav Klose
Serie A · 2013
35€2.0M€1.0Mfell
Álvaro Negredo
Laliga · 2022
37€1.5M€300kfell
Fabio Quagliarella
Serie A · 2021
38€1.0M€500kfell
Jimmy Briand
Ligue 1 · 2020
35€1.6M€600kfell
Gökdeniz Karadeniz
Premier Liga · 2015
35€1.0M€100kfell
Kévin Gameiro
Ligue 1 · 2023
36€1.2M€700kfell
Olivier Giroud
Serie A · 2024
38€3.0M€900kfell
Burak Yilmaz
Ligue 1 · 2021
36€2.8M€800kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
31 Jul 2025Al-QadsiahMarseilleFree / loan€3.5M
18 Jul 2024MarseilleAl-Qadsiah€9.0M€5.0M
21 Jul 2023ChelseaMarseilleFree / loan€4.0M
1 Sept 2022BarcelonaChelsea€12.0M€15.0M
31 Jan 2022ArsenalBarcelonaFree / loan€15.0M
31 Jan 2018DortmundArsenal€63.8M€65.0M
4 Jul 2013Saint-ÉtienneDortmund€13.0M€15.0M
1 Jan 2012AC MilanSaint-Étienne€1.8M€4.0M
31 Dec 2011Saint-ÉtienneAC MilanFree / loan€4.0M
31 Jan 2011AC MilanSaint-ÉtienneFree / loan€3.0M
30 Jan 2011MonacoAC MilanFree / loan€3.0M
6 Jul 2010AC MilanMonacoFree / loan€1.7M
30 Jun 2010LilleAC MilanFree / loan€1.7M
1 Jul 2009AC MilanLilleFree / loan€1.0M
30 Jun 2009DijonAC MilanFree / loan€1.0M
2 Jul 2008AC MilanDijonFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Milan U19AC MilanUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2007SC Bastia U19Milan U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2005FC Rouen U17SC Bastia U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2004FC Rouen JugendFC Rouen U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2001St. Laval Yth.FC Rouen JugendUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.