Giorgiy Shelia
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Giorgiy Shelia's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Average | 45.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 37.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €87k vs market €150k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1530 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1279
- Opponent strength
- 1308
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €86k – €119k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 33 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -64% to -26%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 38: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1530 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 63 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 61%–143%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | GK | 17 | 1530 | 57% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1308 | 1279 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | GK | 27 | 2430 | 90% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 1301 | 1248 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | GK | 25 | 2205 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1328 | 1273 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | GK | 29 | 2565 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1316 | 1364 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | GK | 16 | 1405 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1340 | 1300 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | GK | 16 | 1440 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1346 | 1307 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | PFK Tambov (-2021) | Premier Liga | GK | 29 | 2610 | 97% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1405 | 1285 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | FK Ufa | Premier Liga | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1590 | 1318 | 0.69 |
| 2016/17 | FK Ufa | Premier Liga | GK | 11 | 908 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1386 | 1349 | 0.70 |
| 2015/16 | FK Ufa | Premier Liga | GK | 12 | 1077 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1472 | 1319 | 0.79 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Russian Cup | FK Ufa | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Russian Cup | FK Ufa | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Russian Cup | FK Ufa | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Russian Cup | Enisey Krasnoyarsk | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Russian Cup | FK Ufa | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rustam Khudzhamov Premier Liga · 2019 | 37 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Rafael Bracali Liga Portugal · 2017 | 36 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| José Moreira Liga Portugal · 2018 | 36 | €100k | €25k | fell |
| Yaroslav Godzyur Premier Liga · 2021 | 36 | €200k | €75k | fell |
| Nicolas Penneteau Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 40 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Emiliano Viviano Super Lig · 2023 | 38 | €100k | €300k | rose |
| Yuriy Pankiv Premier Liga · 2021 | 37 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Theo Zwarthoed Eredivisie · 2018 | 36 | €300k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2020 | Tambov | Akhmat Grozny | Unknown | €650k |
| 12 Jan 2019 | Ufa | Tambov | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Feb 2016 | Enisey | Ufa | €60k | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Baltika | Enisey | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Dinamo Bryansk | Baltika | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Dynamo U17 | Dinamo Bryansk | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.