Djevencio van der Kust

25 yrs · Left-back · Suriname
Heracles Almelo · Eredivisie · Foot: left · Height: 178 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€350k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€99k – €379k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€306k – €382k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€233k – €414k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€73k – €282k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€99k – €379k
Model value (performance-implied)€306k – €382k
Projected value (24 months)€233k – €414k
Dashed line: current market value (€350k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Djevencio van der Kust's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 94

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average0.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €192k vs market €350k
Expected appreciationNeutral-1% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.2M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1207 (39% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.15
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.16
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
1 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1060
Opponent strength
1316
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€233k – €414k

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-212 Elo); league level down (-44 Elo); relative output up 99% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -17% to +11%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1207 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
82 (DEF)
Relative output kept
65%–166%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Heracles AlmeloEredivisieLB21120739%020.150.16131610600.43
2024/25Sparta RotterdamEredivisieLB1392330%000.000.06130513000.50
2024/25Beerschot VAJupiler Pro LeagueLB32007%000.000.15131811440.63
2023/24Sparta RotterdamEredivisieLB30250382%160.250.19134513270.48
2022/23FC UtrechtEredivisieLB858219%000.000.08137213920.58
2021/22FC UtrechtEredivisieLB1296432%000.000.06132413580.60

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Knvb BekerHeracles Almelo23301—
2024/25Knvb BekerSparta Rotterdam224000—
2023/24Knvb BekerSparta Rotterdam218000—
2022/23Knvb BekerFC Utrecht29200—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Kyriakos Mazoulouxis
Super League 1 · 2022
25€350k€350kflat
Danylo Knysh
Premier Liga · 2022
26€250k€175kfell
Bogdan Porokh
Premier Liga · 2023
23€300k€300kflat
Ruben Roosken
Eredivisie · 2024
24€450k€700krose
Ivan Milicevic
Super League 1 · 2024
26€600k€600kflat
Tercious Malepe
Premier Liga · 2021
24€300k€450krose
Odysseas Lymperakis
Super League 1 · 2021
23€250k€175kfell
Taras Sakiv
Premier Liga · 2023
26€400k€350kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
18 Jul 2025Sparta R.Heracles AlmeloUnknown€600k
30 Jun 2025Beerschot VASparta R.Free / loan€600k
3 Feb 2025Sparta R.Beerschot VAFree / loan€750k
10 Aug 2023UtrechtSparta R.Unknown€850k
30 Jun 2023HoustonUtrechtFree / loan€850k
9 Feb 2023UtrechtHoustonFree / loan€850k
1 Jul 2022Utrecht U21UtrechtUnknown€650k
1 Jul 2020Utrecht U19Utrecht U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Utrecht U17Utrecht U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Utrecht YouthUtrecht U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Zeeburgia Yth.Utrecht YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.