Ruslan Chernenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ruslan Chernenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.86x the positional average in the league (896 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 3.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €54k vs market €100k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 896 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1070
- Opponent strength
- 1195
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €47k – €101k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 39 pts; relative output down 24% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -47% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 896 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Obolon Kyiv | Premier Liga | CM | 17 | 896 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.19 | 1195 | 1070 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Obolon Kyiv | Premier Liga | CM | 27 | 1945 | 72% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 1205 | 1098 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | Obolon Kyiv | Premier Liga | CM | 30 | 2299 | 85% | 3 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.31 | 1270 | 1078 | 0.34 |
| 2018/19 | Arsenal Kyiv | Premier Liga | RM | 1 | 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 1644 | 1186 | 0.57 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Obolon Kyiv | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Obolon Kyiv | 2 | 118 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | Obolon Kyiv | 2 | 99 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Martynyuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 35 | €75k | €75k | flat |
| Nicolás Martínez Super League 1 · 2022 | 35 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Suleiman Omo Super League 1 · 2019 | 34 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Fabien Antunes Super League 1 · 2023 | 32 | €200k | €125k | fell |
| Cristian Montano Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 33 | €300k | €75k | fell |
| Mitchell Donald Super Lig · 2021 | 33 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Andriy Bogdanov Premier Liga · 2024 | 34 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Sergiy Rybalka Premier Liga · 2024 | 34 | €150k | €150k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sept 2022 | Spartak Varna | Obolon | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Agrobiznes | Spartak Varna | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Marek | Agrobiznes | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Apr 2022 | Agrobiznes | Marek | Free / loan | €300k |
| 20 Sept 2018 | Arsenal Kyiv | Agrobiznes | Free / loan | €100k |
| 9 Jul 2015 | Chayka | Arsenal Kyiv | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2015 | RVUFK Kyiv | Chayka | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Arsenal Kyiv II | RVUFK Kyiv | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Dec 2012 | Desna | Arsenal Kyiv II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Arsenal Kyiv II | Desna | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Arsenal K. U17 | Arsenal Kyiv II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.