Denis Makarov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Denis Makarov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.76x the positional average in the league (1145 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 77
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 14.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €409k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1145 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 14 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1267
- Opponent strength
- 1258
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €438k – €1.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -55% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1145 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | RW | 13 | 647 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1258 | 1147 | 0.40 |
| 2025/26 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | RW | 8 | 498 | 18% | 3 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.32 | 1309 | 1423 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | RW | 11 | 76 | 3% | 1 | 0 | 1.18 | 0.43 | 1273 | 1445 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | RW | 21 | 823 | 30% | 4 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.46 | 1353 | 1374 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | RM | 25 | 1566 | 58% | 4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 1321 | 1325 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | RM | 24 | 1526 | 57% | 3 | 4 | 0.41 | 0.32 | 1353 | 1374 | 0.52 |
| 2021/22 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | LM | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1420 | 1227 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | RM | 28 | 1944 | 72% | 7 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.32 | 1340 | 1383 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | RW | 9 | 421 | 16% | 2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.49 | 1415 | 1332 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 4 | 182 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 9 | 540 | 2 | 5 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 4 | 276 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 7 | 325 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 6 | 302 | 2 | 3 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 2 | 119 | 2 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tunay Torun Super Lig · 2019 | 29 | €700k | €325k | fell |
| Guillermo Molins Super League 1 · 2018 | 30 | €1.3M | €600k | fell |
| Georgios Georgiadis Super League 1 · 2015 | 28 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Oğulcan Çağlayan Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Renaud Emond Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 31 | €1.2M | €350k | fell |
| Gevorg Ghazaryan Super League 1 · 2015 | 27 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| Heri Tavares Liga Portugal · 2024 | 27 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Vidar Örn Kjartansson Premier Liga · 2020 | 30 | €1.2M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan 2026 | Dynamo Moscow | Kayserispor | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 6 Aug 2021 | Rubin Kazan | Dynamo Moscow | €7.5M | €4.0M |
| 6 Jan 2020 | Neftekhimik | Rubin Kazan | €700k | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Orenburg-2 | Neftekhimik | €14k | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Neftekhimik | Orenburg-2 | Free / loan | €250k |
| 19 Jul 2018 | Orenburg-2 | Neftekhimik | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Orenburg II | Orenburg-2 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 21 Feb 2017 | MCPUFP Mordovia | Orenburg II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 25 Aug 2015 | Neryungri U19 | MCPUFP Mordovia | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 15 Mar 2015 | Akron Konoplev | Neryungri U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.