Arbnor Muja
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arbnor Muja's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.18x the positional average in the league (1538 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 38.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.0M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1538 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.47
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 39 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1399
- Opponent strength
- 1411
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €809k – €2.9M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+112 Elo); league level up (+117 Elo); relative output up 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -65% to -37%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1538 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 21 | 1490 | 55% | 5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.47 | 1411 | 1401 | 0.65 |
| 2025/26 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | LW | 2 | 48 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1171 | 1310 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | RW | 33 | 1210 | 37% | 3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.37 | 1284 | 1286 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 23 | 1209 | 45% | 5 | 3 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 1379 | 1492 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | LW | 13 | 415 | 12% | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.38 | 1256 | 1217 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 21 | 1377 | 45% | 3 | 4 | 0.46 | 0.31 | 1293 | 1497 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | Sint-Truidense VV | 5 | 368 | 1 | 1 | 1462 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Samsunspor | 1 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1394 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Royal Antwerp FC | 5 | 359 | 1 | 0 | 1616 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Royal Antwerp FC | 2 | 110 | 0 | 0 | 1432 |
| 2023/24 | Volkswagen Supercup | Royal Antwerp FC | 1 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1302 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Drita | 4 | 307 | 2 | 1 | 1345 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rusescu Super Lig · 2016 | 28 | €2.0M | €300k | fell |
| Fernando Andrade Liga Portugal · 2019 | 26 | €3.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Pedro Santos Liga Portugal · 2016 | 28 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Gheorghe Grozav Premier Liga · 2017 | 27 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
| Franck Dja Djédjé Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €2.0M | €750k | fell |
| Rúben Lameiras Liga Portugal · 2021 | 27 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Orlando Sá Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 29 | €2.2M | €1.2M | fell |
| Anthony Mounier Ligue 1 · 2014 | 27 | €3.0M | €4.2M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Sint-Truiden | Samsunspor | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 27 Aug 2025 | Samsunspor | Sint-Truiden | Free / loan | €3.4M |
| 9 Feb 2024 | Royal Antwerp | Samsunspor | €2.0M | €5.0M |
| 5 Aug 2022 | FC Drita | Royal Antwerp | €720k | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | KF Skënderbeu | FC Drita | Free / loan | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | KF Trepca 89 | KF Skënderbeu | Free / loan | €100k |
| 31 Jan 2020 | KF Skënderbeu | KF Trepca 89 | Free / loan | €50k |
| 31 Aug 2019 | Braunschweig II | KF Skënderbeu | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 16 Aug 2018 | KF Trepca 89 | Braunschweig II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | KF Trepca | KF Trepca 89 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.