José Fontán
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates José Fontán's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 94
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 47.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €820k vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2545 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1310
- Opponent strength
- 1336
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.0M – €2.0M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 123% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -36% to +81%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | CB | 30 | 2545 | 83% | 2 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 1336 | 1310 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | CB | 29 | 2592 | 85% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1362 | 1285 | 0.51 |
| 2022/23 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | LB | 21 | 1103 | 36% | 1 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 1380 | 1246 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CB | 9 | 273 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1588 | 1499 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CB | 14 | 649 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1588 | 1535 | 1.10 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Go Ahead Eagles | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 3 | 221 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 105 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fábio Cardoso Liga Portugal · 2021 | 27 | €2.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Patrick Vieira Liga Portugal · 2017 | 26 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Seth De Witte Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 28 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Jan Van den Bergh Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 27 | €1.0M | €450k | fell |
| Viktor Elm Eredivisie · 2013 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ervin Zukanovic Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 26 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Zarko Tomasevic Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 26 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Pavlo Ksyonz Premier Liga · 2013 | 26 | €1.0M | €2.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2024 | Celta de Vigo | Arouca | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | FC Cartagena | Celta de Vigo | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 21 Aug 2023 | Celta de Vigo | FC Cartagena | Free / loan | €900k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Go Ahead Eagles | Celta de Vigo | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Celta de Vigo | Go Ahead Eagles | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 27 Jul 2021 | Celta Vigo B | Celta de Vigo | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Celta U19 | Celta Vigo B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Celta Vigo Yth. | Celta U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.