Wilguens Paugain
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Wilguens Paugain's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 76
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 5.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €584k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1011 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 5 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1228
- Opponent strength
- 1415
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €388k – €1.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -48% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1011 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Zulte Waregem | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 19 | 1011 | 37% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 1415 | 1228 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Relegation Play Offs | Zulte Waregem | 5 | 269 | 0 | 0 | 1299 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquinhos Pedroso Super Lig · 2017 | 24 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Loïc Bessilé Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 24 | €850k | €400k | fell |
| Héctor Quiñónes Liga Portugal · 2018 | 26 | €600k | €550k | flat |
| Alex Pinto Liga Portugal · 2021 | 23 | €650k | €600k | flat |
| Rami Kaib Eredivisie · 2021 | 24 | €550k | €600k | flat |
| Felipe Macedo Liga Portugal · 2018 | 24 | €500k | €225k | fell |
| Okan Alkan Super Lig · 2015 | 23 | €750k | €400k | fell |
| Justin Hoogma Eredivisie · 2022 | 24 | €1.0M | €900k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | SKN St. Pölten | Zulte Waregem | Unknown | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Zulte Waregem | SKN St. Pölten | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Feb 2025 | SKN St. Pölten | Zulte Waregem | Free / loan | €200k |
| 31 Jul 2024 | Auda | SKN St. Pölten | Free / loan | €150k |
| 2 Sept 2023 | Akritas Chlor. | Auda | Free / loan | €75k |
| 21 Jul 2022 | Epinal B | Akritas Chlor. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | AS Nancy B | Epinal B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | AS Nancy U19 | AS Nancy B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | AS Nancy U17 | AS Nancy U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | AS Nancy Jugend | AS Nancy U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | SAS Epinal Yth. | AS Nancy Jugend | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.