Sergey Pesjakov

37 yrs · Goalkeeper · Russia

PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 199 cm

Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027

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Market value

€200k

Updated 7 days ago

Estimated acquisition

€50k – €183k

Estimated · 20–80% range

Model value

€96k – €402k

Performance-implied · estimated

Projected (24m)

€81k – €194k

Resale range · estimated

Potential value gap

-€87k – €352k

Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€50k – €183k

Model value (performance-implied)€96k – €402k

Projected value (24 months)€81k – €194k

Dashed line: current market value (€200k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Sergey Pesjakov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)

Performance	Average	46.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
Age	Unfavorable	37.5 years
Acquisition cost	Very favorable	est. €66k vs market €200k
Expected appreciation	Low	-16% over ~2 years (model)
Value gap	Very large	weak predictor on its own
Development	Low
League translation	Moderate	league coefficient 0.56
Tactical fit	Not evaluated	Requires event/role data not available from the current free source.
Risk	Very High
Data confidence	Medium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes: 2684 (99% of available)
Goals + assists / 90: 0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90: 0.00
xG, xA, progression: Data unavailable
Defensive actions: Data unavailable
Performance percentile: 46 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength: 0.56 (rank 10)
Team strength (Elo): 1262
Opponent strength: 1341
Possession, role: Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development: Low
Trajectory: improving
Breakout probability: Age > 23
Resale range (24m): €81k – €194k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 40 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -53% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

▲Age 38: resale value typically declines.
⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers: 63 (all positions)
Relative output kept: 61%–143%
Held a regular role (900+ min): 60%
Confidence: Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

Season	Club	League	Pos	Apps	Min	Min share	A	G+A/90	Adj. G+A/90	Opp. Elo	Team Elo	League str.
2025/26	PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara	Premier Liga	GK	30	2684	99%	0	0.00	0.00	1341	1262	0.56
2024/25	PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara	Premier Liga	GK	19	1593	59%	1	0.06	0.02	1297	1257	0.55
2023/24	FK Rostov	Premier Liga	GK	23	2040	76%	0	0.00	0.00	1339	1317	0.49
2022/23	FK Rostov	Premier Liga	GK	30	2700	100%	0	0.00	0.00	1323	1343	0.53
2021/22	FK Rostov	Premier Liga	GK	27	2430	90%	0	0.00	0.00	1346	1283	0.52
2020/21	FK Rostov	Premier Liga	GK	24	2160	80%	0	0.00	0.00	1359	1316	0.55
2019/20	FK Rostov	Premier Liga	GK	17	1530	57%	0	0.00	0.00	1389	1374	0.63
2018/19	FK Rostov	Premier Liga	GK	19	1710	63%	0	0.00	0.00	1417	1402	0.69
2017/18	FK Rostov	Premier Liga	GK	18	1602	59%	0	0.00	0.00	1413	1447	0.75
2016/17	FK Spartak Moskva	Premier Liga	GK	1	90	3%	0	0.00	0.00	1272	1517	0.70
2015/16	Anzhi Makhachkala ( -2022)	Premier Liga	GK	11	990	37%	0	0.00	0.00	1444	1332	0.79
2015/16	FK Spartak Moskva	Premier Liga	GK	6	540	20%	0	0.00	0.00	1430	1462	0.79
2014/15	FK Spartak Moskva	Premier Liga	GK	1	90	3%	0	0.00	0.00	1405	1450	0.88
2013/14	FK Spartak Moskva	Premier Liga	GK	15	1350	50%	0	0.00	0.00	1468	1496	0.92
2012/13	FK Spartak Moskva	Premier Liga	GK	8	675	25%	0	0.00	0.00	1449	1501	0.88

Cups & continental competitions

Season	Competition	Club	Apps	Min	Avg opp. Elo
2024/25	Russian Cup	PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara	1	90	—
2023/24	Russian Cup	FK Rostov	2	180	—
2022/23	Russian Cup	FK Rostov	7	567	—
2020/21	Uefa Europa League Qualifying	FK Rostov	1	90	1439
2020/21	Russian Cup	FK Rostov	1	90	—
2019/20	Russian Cup	FK Rostov	2	180	—
2018/19	Russian Cup	FK Rostov	6	540	—
2017/18	Russian Cup	FK Rostov	2	210	—
2016/17	Russian Cup	FK Spartak Moskva	1	90	—
2015/16	Russian Cup	Anzhi Makhachkala ( -2022)	1	90	—
2014/15	Russian Cup	FK Spartak Moskva	1	90	—
2013/14	Uefa Europa League Qualifying	FK Spartak Moskva	2	180	1391
2012/13	Uefa Champions League	FK Spartak Moskva	2	180	1531
2012/13	Russian Cup	FK Spartak Moskva	1	90	—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)	Age	Value then	~2y later	Outcome
Cássio Liga Portugal · 2016	36	€250k	€200k	fell
Rudy Riou Jupiler Pro League · 2016	36	€300k	€300k	flat
Yuriy Pankiv Premier Liga · 2022	38	€200k	€100k	fell
Jesper Hansen Superliga · 2022	37	€200k	€100k	fell
Fabien Farnolle Super Lig · 2020	35	€350k	€350k	flat
Emiliano Viviano Super Lig · 2022	37	€300k	€300k	flat
Aleksandr Belenov Premier Liga · 2024	38	€250k	€50k	fell
Trigueira Liga Portugal · 2022	34	€200k	€75k	fell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

Date	From	To	Fee	MV at time
1 Jul 2024	Rostov	KS Samara	Free / loan	€500k
1 Jul 2017	Spartak Moscow	Rostov	Free / loan	€700k
31 Dec 2015	Anzhi	Spartak Moscow	Free / loan	€800k
12 Aug 2015	Spartak Moscow	Anzhi	Free / loan	€800k
30 Jun 2012	Rostov	Spartak Moscow	Free / loan	€1.5M
10 Jan 2012	Spartak Moscow	Rostov	Free / loan	€1.0M
31 Dec 2011	Tom Tomsk	Spartak Moscow	Free / loan	€1.0M
1 Jan 2011	Spartak Moscow	Tom Tomsk	Free / loan	€800k
1 Aug 2009	Shinnik Yaroslav	Spartak Moscow	€300k	€700k
1 Jan 2008	Shinnik II	Shinnik Yaroslav	Unknown	€200k
31 Dec 2007	Tekstilshchik	Shinnik II	Free / loan	€200k
1 Jan 2007	Shinnik II	Tekstilshchik	Free / loan	Data unavailable
4 Aug 2005	Shinnik U19	Shinnik II	Unknown	Data unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.